Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity and Food Security in Somalia: An Integrative Narrative Review and Policy Analysis
This integrative narrative review and policy analysis demonstrates that climate change severely undermines Somalia's agricultural productivity and food security through recurrent droughts, floods, and infrastructure failures, necessitating urgent, multi-faceted investments in irrigation, resilient seed systems, early warning services, and social protection to address the crisis driven by interacting climatic, economic, and institutional pressures.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
In the Horn of Africa, the rhythm of life is dictated by the sky. For millions of people in Somalia, the arrival of the rainy seasons is not merely a weather event; it is the foundation of survival. The country relies on two main rainy periods, known locally as the Gu and the Deyr, which fill the rivers and replenish the soil. When these rains arrive on time and fall gently, farmers plant sorghum and maize, herders move their cattle to fresh pastures, and families eat. But when the rains fail or arrive too violently, the entire system trembles. This is the reality of climate change in a place where agriculture is not just an industry but the very engine of the economy. The concept of food security, which experts define as having enough food available, being able to afford it, using it properly for health, and having it consistently over time, hangs in the balance of these weather patterns. When the climate shifts, it does not just dry out a field; it breaks the chain of production, raises prices in the market, and strips families of their ability to feed themselves. Understanding how these weather shocks translate into hunger is critical, not just for Somalia, but for anyone trying to grasp how a warming planet threatens the most vulnerable communities.
A new analysis brings these complex threads together, weaving together local stories from a farming district with national data to paint a clear picture of the crisis. The study, conducted by Mohamed Ali Mahadale of Benadir University, does not rely on a single type of evidence. Instead, it combines a detailed survey of 205 people living in the Jowhar District, a fertile area along the Shabelle River, with reports from major international organizations like the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. The goal was to move beyond simple observations and understand exactly how climate hazards are dismantling agricultural productivity and pushing families into food insecurity. The researchers found that the threat is not just about the weather itself, but about how the weather interacts with weak infrastructure, poverty, and conflict.
The evidence from Jowhar reveals a community that is acutely aware of the changing world around them. Nearly every person surveyed, 99.5 percent, had noticed significant changes in the climate over the last five to ten years. They did not just see this as a scientific fact; they felt it in their daily lives. Almost all of them reported that these changes had directly affected their household's ability to get food. The most common consequence was not just a lack of crops, but a sharp rise in food prices. When farmers cannot harvest, the supply in the market shrinks, and the cost of a bag of grain skyrockets. This hits everyone, even those who do not farm, because they must buy their food. The survey showed that 60 percent of the respondents were often or always struggling to find enough to eat because of these climate-related conditions. The connection was so strong that those who perceived the greatest threat to their agriculture were the same ones reporting the most frequent hunger.
The study highlights that the problem is a double-edged sword. In riverine areas like Jowhar, farmers face a terrifying paradox: they suffer from both drought and flooding. When the rains fail, the rivers run low, and there is no water to irrigate the crops. But when the rains do come, they often arrive with such intensity that they cause the rivers to burst their banks, washing away standing crops, destroying irrigation canals, and drowning livestock. This cycle of too little water and too much water leaves farmers with few options. While many people in the survey knew about climate change and had heard advice on how to adapt, knowledge alone was not enough. The most requested help was not more information, but physical resources. Nearly half of the respondents identified improved irrigation infrastructure as their top priority, followed by access to seeds that can survive drought or floods. They needed the tools to manage water, not just the knowledge that water was becoming unpredictable.
Looking beyond the local district, the national picture confirms that this is a widespread emergency. Recent reports from early 2026 indicate that the 2025 harvest failed almost entirely, and a severe drought is intensifying across the country. This has led to a situation where millions of people face a crisis level of hunger. The World Bank warns that without significant changes, these climate impacts could shrink the country's entire economy by a massive margin in the coming decades. The analysis makes it clear that the solution cannot be a single fix. It is not enough to simply send food aid when a drought hits, nor is it enough to just tell farmers to change their planting dates. The crisis is driven by a combination of environmental shocks and a lack of resilience in the systems that support life.
The paper concludes that saving Somalia's food security requires a fundamental shift in how resources are invested. The most urgent need is to rebuild and protect the water systems that farmers depend on. This means repairing canals, building better embankments to stop floods, and creating storage for water during dry spells. It also means developing seed systems that can withstand extreme heat and irregular rains, and ensuring that farmers have access to credit and insurance to recover when things go wrong. The study emphasizes that these investments must be part of a broader plan that includes better roads, markets, and social safety nets. If the country can strengthen its ability to manage water and support its farmers, it can break the cycle where a single bad season leads to years of poverty. The path forward is difficult, but the evidence shows that with the right infrastructure and support, the link between climate change and hunger can be weakened.
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