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Data-Driven Physiologic Bicarbonate Range for Preterm Infants

This study establishes a data-driven serum bicarbonate reference range of 18–28 mEq/L for preterm infants born before 35 weeks' gestation between 12 hours and 14 days of life, based on an analysis of 1,366 infants with routine hospital courses in a level III NICU.

Original authors: Spencer Millen, Christopher Crutchfield, Amir Mahmoodzadeh, Alex Kula, Gustave Falciglia, Karna Murthy

Published 2026-09-10
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Original authors: Spencer Millen, Christopher Crutchfield, Amir Mahmoodzadeh, Alex Kula, Gustave Falciglia, Karna Murthy

Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). ✨ This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer

In the delicate first days of a newborn's life, the body works tirelessly to maintain a precise internal balance, a state where the chemistry of the blood remains just right for cells to function. One of the most critical parts of this balance involves how the body handles acid and base. When the body produces acid as a natural byproduct of metabolism, it needs a way to neutralize it, much like a sponge soaking up a spill. The primary substance that acts as this sponge in the blood is a chemical called bicarbonate. For healthy adults, doctors have long known what a normal level of this substance looks like. However, for babies born prematurely, the picture has been unclear. Because their organs are still developing, their ability to manage acid and base is different from that of full-term infants or adults. Without a clear map of what is normal for these tiny patients, medical teams have struggled to distinguish between a baby who is simply adjusting to life outside the womb and one who is truly sick. This uncertainty can lead to unnecessary treatments or, conversely, missed signs of trouble.

A team of researchers at Northwestern University and the Ann and Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago set out to draw this missing map. They focused on preterm infants, those born before thirty-five weeks of gestation, to find the true range of normal bicarbonate levels. Instead of guessing or relying on data from older children or adults, they looked directly at the blood of thousands of premature babies who had a smooth, uncomplicated hospital stay. By filtering out infants who were very sick, had kidney issues, or required complex medications, the team isolated a group of babies who were as healthy as a premature infant could be. They examined blood samples taken between twelve hours and two weeks after birth, a period when the baby's body has moved past the initial shock of birth and settled into a steady rhythm.

The researchers analyzed nearly 2,700 blood samples from 1,366 infants who met their strict criteria for a "routine" course. They found that for these healthy preterm babies, the normal level of bicarbonate in the blood falls between 18 and 28 milliequivalents per liter. This range is notably higher than some older estimates that suggested premature infants could have much lower levels without it being a problem. The study also revealed that gestational age matters. In the main analysis of the reference cohort, infants born between 32 and 35 weeks tended to have slightly higher bicarbonate levels than those born earlier (under 32 weeks). However, this difference was not statistically significant when looking at a smaller subset of infants whose blood gas values were also confirmed to be in a normal range, suggesting that sample size may have influenced the ability to detect this distinction in that specific group.

The findings challenge the idea that treating a premature infant exactly like a full-term baby is always the right approach. Because these babies have different physiological needs, their "normal" numbers are distinct. The researchers noted that their data comes from a single hospital and reflects the specific care practices used there, such as the types of fluids and nutrition given to the infants. While the study does not prove that every premature baby everywhere will have these exact numbers, it provides a strong, data-driven starting point for doctors. It suggests that when a premature baby's bicarbonate level drops below 18, it may be a sign that the body is struggling to handle acid, rather than just a normal variation. Conversely, levels within the 18 to 28 range appear to be a sign of a stable, healthy state for these infants.

This work does not solve every question about neonatal care, but it offers a clearer baseline for decision-making. The authors emphasize that their results are based on babies who were already receiving standard care, including respiratory support and specialized nutrition. They acknowledge that the most premature infants, who are often given specific nutrients to help their growth, showed lower bicarbonate levels than their slightly older counterparts in the main analysis, though this distinction was less clear in the gas-confirmed subset. This hints that the very youngest babies might have a different, perhaps lower, natural baseline, but the study confirms that for the broader group of preterm infants, the range of 18 to 28 is the standard to aim for. By establishing what "normal" looks like for this vulnerable population, the study helps medical teams better understand when a baby is truly in distress and when they are simply navigating the complex transition into the world.

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