A Weighted PESTLE Diagnostic of Critical Raw Materials Sector Development in North Macedonia: Quantifying Macro-Environmental Constraints for Integration into European Union Value Chains

The European Union is reshaping its industrial future by securing access to the specific minerals needed for clean energy and digital technology. These essential minerals, known as critical raw materials, are no longer just commodities to be bought and sold; they are strategic assets vital for national security. To ensure a steady supply, the EU has passed a new law setting strict targets for how much of these materials must come from within its own borders or from recycled sources, rather than relying on a single foreign supplier. This shift turns the attention of European policymakers toward neighboring regions, particularly the Western Balkans, where countries like North Macedonia possess significant mineral wealth. However, having the rocks in the ground is only the first step. Turning that geological potential into a reliable supply chain requires navigating a complex web of laws, environmental protections, economic realities, and social acceptance. The challenge is not just finding the minerals, but building a system that can extract and process them in a way that meets modern safety and sustainability standards.

Researchers at Goce Delcev University in North Macedonia have developed a new way to measure exactly how ready the country is to join this European supply chain. Instead of treating all the factors that influence mining as equally important, the team created a scoring system that weighs each factor according to how much it actually matters for success in this specific context. They looked at six broad areas: politics, economics, society, technology, laws, and the environment. In previous studies, these areas were often listed side by side without distinguishing which ones were the most critical bottlenecks. This new approach assigns a specific importance score to each area based on three questions: how much does this factor decide whether mining can happen at all, how severe are the problems currently documented in North Macedonia, and how tightly is this factor linked to the country's goal of joining the European Union?

The study found that the most important factors for North Macedonia's success are legal frameworks, political stability, and environmental management. These three areas carry the most weight because they are the gatekeepers that determine whether mining projects can proceed and whether the country can be trusted as a supplier by European partners. The researchers then scored the country's current performance in each area on a scale from one to five, where five represents a perfect, fully ready state. The results showed that while North Macedonia has a strong political drive to align with European standards, it is falling short in almost every other area. The country scores highest in politics, but even there, it is only halfway to being fully ready. In the areas of technology, the environment, and social acceptance, the scores are significantly lower, indicating serious gaps that need to be filled.

When the researchers combined the importance of each area with the country's current performance, they calculated a single readiness score for the entire sector. The final score came to just under half of the maximum possible points. This means that while North Macedonia is actively involved in the European supply chain by exporting raw minerals, it is not yet ready to handle the more complex tasks of processing and recycling these materials domestically. The most revealing part of the study came when the team broke down where the country is failing the most. They discovered that the biggest obstacles are not a lack of minerals or money, but rather the state of the environment, the enforcement of laws, and the availability of advanced processing technology.

Specifically, the study highlights that North Macedonia carries a heavy legacy of pollution from past mining activities, including contaminated water and large piles of waste rock that have not been properly managed. This environmental damage is the single largest barrier to progress, contributing more to the country's lack of readiness than any other single factor, even though legal and political issues are technically more important in theory. The researchers also found that the country lacks the industrial capacity to refine these minerals or to recover valuable metals from old waste piles. Without these technologies, the country remains stuck at the bottom of the value chain, exporting raw materials while the more profitable processing happens elsewhere.

The study explicitly rules out the idea that North Macedonia's lack of readiness is due to a shortage of minerals. The country has a well-documented supply of copper, lead, zinc, and silver, as well as significant amounts of waste material that could be reprocessed to recover rare elements. The problem is not what is there, but how it is managed. The authors also argue against the idea that all the factors affecting mining are equally difficult to fix. Their analysis shows that fixing the environmental damage and updating the laws to recognize waste as a resource are the most urgent steps. If these two issues are addressed, they will naturally help solve other problems, such as gaining the trust of local communities and attracting investment for new technology.

The researchers suggest a clear path forward that starts with cleaning up the most dangerous sites from past mining operations. This cleanup should not just be about removing hazards; it should be designed to recover valuable metals from the waste, turning an environmental liability into an economic asset. This approach would help finance the cleanup while simultaneously building the domestic capacity to process materials. The next step would be to update the legal system to make it easier to turn waste into a usable resource, ensuring that new mining projects meet strict environmental standards. Finally, the country needs to invest in the technology required to refine these materials and recover rare elements, moving from simply digging holes to running sophisticated industrial operations.

This new method of weighing the different factors offers a clear, reproducible way to track progress over time. It allows policymakers to see not just where a country is failing, but which failures matter most. By focusing on the areas where high importance meets low performance, North Macedonia can prioritize its efforts effectively. The study concludes that the country's path to becoming a key supplier for Europe depends less on finding new mines and more on fixing the governance, environmental, and technological gaps that currently hold it back. The work provides a practical blueprint for turning a country's mineral potential into a secure and sustainable part of the European economy.