📈 economics

Direct and Indirect Cost Impacts of Construction Safety and Risk Management During Civil Unrest on Infrastructure Project Delivery

This study utilizes quantitative analysis of 211 respondents to identify economic, political, and social drivers of civil unrest in Nigeria, revealing a significant negative correlation between such instability and infrastructure project delivery while advocating for enhanced risk management strategies to mitigate substantial economic and operational losses.

Original authors: Ezekiel Nnadi Ejiofor, Boniface Nancy Amarachi, Deji Rufus Ogunsemi

Published 2026-07-06

📖 5 min read🧠 Deep dive

CC BY 4.0

Original authors: Ezekiel Nnadi Ejiofor, Boniface Nancy Amarachi, Deji Rufus Ogunsemi

Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). ✨ This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer

Imagine Nigeria's economy and its construction projects as a massive, bustling construction site. Now, imagine a sudden, chaotic storm of civil unrest sweeping through that site. This research paper acts like a detailed damage report, explaining exactly how that storm breaks things, stops work, and drains the wallet of the project owners.

Here is the breakdown of what the study found, using simple analogies:

1. What Caused the Storm? (The Root Causes)

The researchers asked 211 people (from students to government workers) to identify why the "storm" of civil unrest happens. They found the wind is blowing from five main directions:

The Empty Pockets (Economic Factors): This was the biggest driver. Imagine a family trying to build a house but having no money for bricks or food. The study found that unemployment and poverty are the top reasons people get angry. When people can't feed their families or the money they have is losing value (inflation and bad exchange rates), the tension builds up.
The Broken Compass (Political Factors): If the people steering the ship don't listen to the crew, the ship crashes. The study found that corruption and lack of good representation are major triggers. People feel ignored and cheated by leaders who don't do their jobs fairly.
The Whispering Wall (Social Factors): Imagine a room where no one talks to each other, and everyone feels left out. Poor communication between the government and citizens is a huge problem. When people feel marginalized or silenced, they eventually shout back.
The Old Scars (Cultural Factors): Think of a family with old, unresolved arguments that keep coming back up. Ethnic and religious tensions were ranked as the most intense cultural driver. Past grievances and historical fights make the current situation much more volatile.
The Outside Winds (Global Factors): Sometimes the storm isn't just local; it's global. Global economic crises and foreign interference act like strong winds pushing the local situation toward chaos.

2. How the Storm Hits the Construction Site (Direct Impacts)

When civil unrest hits a construction project, it's like a tornado tearing through a building site. The study found four main ways the physical work gets destroyed:

The Blocked Roads (Supply Chain): The most immediate hit is to the movement of goods. Imagine trucks full of cement and steel getting stuck or turned back because of protests or violence. The supply chain breaks.
The Cut Power Lines (Utilities): The storm damages the power and water systems. You can't build a house if the lights go out and the water stops flowing.
The Shattered Windows (Public Facilities): Schools, hospitals, and public buildings get damaged or destroyed, forcing the government to spend money fixing them instead of building new things.
The Broken Shops (Commercial Facilities): Businesses and shops get wrecked, leading to a loss of money and jobs.

3. The Hidden Costs (Indirect Impacts)

Even if the building isn't physically destroyed, the project still loses money. It's like trying to run a marathon while carrying a heavy backpack of fear. The study calculated that civil unrest causes a 26.44% drop in the country's overall economic performance (GDP). Here is how that "backpack" weighs down the economy:

The "No-Go" Sign for Investors: Foreign investors are like tourists; they won't visit a place that feels dangerous. Because of the unrest, Foreign Direct Investment drops by 20.69%.
The Slow-Motion Workers: When people are scared or striking, work slows down. This causes an 18.39% drop in labor productivity.
The Broken Delivery Trucks: Supply chains get messed up, adding 13.79% to the cost and delay of getting things done.
The Nervous Bosses: Business owners get scared to spend money. This loss of confidence causes an 11.49% hit to the economy.
The Empty Hotel: Tourism and trade dry up, causing a 9.20% loss.

4. The Math of the Damage

The researchers did some math to see the relationship between the "storm" (unrest) and the "house" (the economy). They found a clear negative link: The more civil unrest there is, the lower the GDP (economic output) goes.

They created a simple formula:

GDP = -38.36 × (Civil Unrest Scale) + 473.83

Think of this as a thermometer. For every step the "Civil Unrest Scale" goes up, the country's economic value drops significantly. The study notes that for every unit increase in unrest, the country loses about $38.36 billion in potential economic value.

The Bottom Line

The paper concludes that you cannot build a stable house on a shaky foundation. In Nigeria, the "foundation" is currently cracked by poverty, corruption, and social tension. Until these root causes are fixed, construction projects will keep getting delayed, damaged, and more expensive. The study suggests that to save the economy and the construction sites, the country needs to fix the unemployment, stop the corruption, and start talking to its people before the next storm hits.

Technical Summary: Direct and Indirect Cost Impacts of Construction Safety and Risk Management During Civil Unrest on Infrastructure Project Delivery

Problem Statement
Civil unrest in Nigeria, driven by socio-political grievances, poses a critical threat to infrastructure development and economic stability. The study addresses the dual challenge of identifying the root causes of this unrest and quantifying its direct and indirect impacts on construction project delivery. The problem is characterized by a cycle where insecurity and governance failures divert public funds from capital projects to security expenditures, stifle sustainable economic growth, and create a volatile environment for infrastructure investment. Specifically, the research investigates how factors such as unemployment, corruption, ethnic tensions, and global economic shocks disrupt construction safety, escalate costs, delay timelines, and damage physical assets.

Methodology
The research employs a structured quantitative approach to investigate the causes of civil unrest and its subsequent effects on infrastructure.

Data Collection: Primary data was gathered from 211 respondents across academic, public, and private sectors using stratified random sampling to ensure socioeconomic representativeness.
Instrumentation: A structured questionnaire organized into five thematic sections (economic, political, social, cultural/religious, and global factors) was utilized. Responses were measured on a 5-point Likert scale.
Analysis Techniques:
- Relative Importance Index (RII): Used to rank the key drivers of civil unrest and the critical risk factors affecting construction performance.
- Descriptive Statistics: Applied to summarize survey data.
- Regression Analysis: A simple linear regression model was developed to examine the relationship between the intensity of civil unrest and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance using annual data from 2013 to 2023.
- Reliability and Validity: Cronbach's alpha confirmed reliability scores above 0.70, and content validity was established through expert review and alignment with Social Conflict Theory.
Limitations: The authors acknowledge that the regression model excludes significant macroeconomic variables such as oil prices, inflation, and exchange rates, and relies on a limited time-series sample. Consequently, the findings highlight associations rather than definitive causal links.

Key Contributions and Results

1. Drivers of Civil Unrest
The study identifies a multidimensional set of causes, ranked by their Relative Importance Index (RII):

Economic Factors: Unemployment and poverty emerged as the primary drivers (RII = 4.6730), followed by poor exchange rates/unstable economies (RII = 4.5972), income inequality (RII = 4.5877), and inflation (RII = 4.5403).
Political Factors: Lack of good political representation (RII = 4.6588) and corruption/mismanagement (RII = 4.6303) were identified as the most significant political contributors.
Social Factors: Poor communication between authorities and citizens (RII = 4.6066) and social inequality (RII = 4.5735) were top social drivers.
Cultural/Religious Factors: Ethnicity and religious tensions ranked highest among cultural factors (RII = 4.7109), followed by historical grievances (RII = 4.6825).
Global/External Factors: Global economic crises (RII = 4.5403) and foreign interference (RII = 4.4645) were noted as significant external influences.

2. Direct Impacts on Infrastructure
Civil unrest causes immediate physical and operational disruptions to construction projects:

Supply Chain Disruption: The disturbance of goods and people's movement, affecting supply chains, was ranked as the most critical direct impact (RII = 4.6445).
Utility Damage: Damage to power and water supply systems ranked second (RII = 4.5071).
Asset Destruction: Destruction of public facilities (education/health) and commercial facilities followed, leading to increased reconstruction costs and project delays.

3. Indirect Economic Impacts
The study estimates a total GDP decline of 26.44% attributable to civil unrest, with specific sectoral impacts including:

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): A 20.69% decline due to perceived risks and policy uncertainty.
Labor Disruptions: An 18.39% decline in productivity and wages.
Supply Chain: A 13.79% impact on logistics and costs.
Business Confidence: An 11.49% negative impact on investment decisions.
Tourism and Trade: A 9.20% decline in revenue.

4. Regression Analysis
A significant negative correlation was established between civil unrest and economic performance. The derived regression equation is:
$GDP = -38.36 \times (\text{Civil Unrest Scale}) + 473.83$
The analysis indicates that for every unit increase in the civil unrest scale, GDP decreases by approximately 38.36 units. However, the model's $R^2$ value of 0.31 suggests that civil unrest explains only 31% of the variation in GDP, acknowledging the influence of other external factors.

Significance and Claims
The paper claims that civil unrest is a profound external risk factor that fundamentally alters the safety, cost, and timeline dynamics of infrastructure projects in Nigeria. By quantifying the economic toll (estimated at a loss of roughly $38.36 billion per unit rise in unrest scale in the context of the model) and identifying specific risk drivers, the study advocates for enhanced risk management and security measures to improve project outcomes.

The authors emphasize that while economic instability is a primary driver, the interconnection between social conflict and economic impact underscores the need for reforms addressing the underlying causes of dissatisfaction. The study concludes that neglecting these issues perpetuates a cycle of poverty and unrest, diverting resources from essential infrastructure investments to security spending. Therefore, addressing unemployment, political representation, and social cohesion is presented as critical not only for peace but for the viability of infrastructure delivery and long-term economic growth. The research positions itself as a call for integrated strategies that combine security measures with inclusive economic and political reforms to mitigate the risks posed by civil unrest to the construction sector.