Seroprevalence and risk factors of lumpy skin disease in cattle across Asia and Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis, 2000-2025
This systematic review and meta-analysis of 20 studies involving over 13,000 cattle from 2000 to 2025 reveals a substantial pooled seroprevalence of lumpy skin disease (31.2%) across Asia and Africa, with significantly higher rates in Asia and during outbreaks, while identifying age, sex, crossbreeding, and extensive management systems as key risk factors driving the disease's spread.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
Cattle are the backbone of food security and livelihoods for millions of people across the globe, yet they face a constant threat from a viral disease that leaves them with painful, raised bumps on their skin. This illness, known as lumpy skin disease, is caused by a virus that spreads primarily through the bites of insects like mosquitoes and flies. When a cow gets infected, it suffers from fever, swollen lymph nodes, and skin lesions that can ruin its hide and drastically reduce milk production. While the disease was once confined mostly to Africa, it has recently crossed borders to invade parts of Asia, creating a new urgency for farmers and veterinarians to understand how widespread the infection truly is. To fight a disease effectively, scientists first need a clear map of where it exists and how many animals have been exposed to it, but the data available so far has been scattered and inconsistent, making it difficult to see the full picture.
To solve this puzzle, a team of researchers from Chittagong Veterinary and Animal Sciences University in Bangladesh decided to gather every available study on the disease from the last twenty-five years. They looked for reports from both Africa and Asia that tested cattle for antibodies, which are the proteins the immune system creates to fight off the virus. By combining the results of twenty different studies involving more than thirteen thousand cattle, they created a single, comprehensive estimate of how common the disease has become. Their work reveals that the virus is far more widespread than previously thought, with an overall infection rate of roughly thirty-one percent across the regions they studied. This means that in the areas covered by these studies, about one in every three cattle has been exposed to the virus at some point, even if it did not always show severe symptoms.
The researchers found that the risk of infection is not the same everywhere or for every animal. The disease appears to be more prevalent in Asia than in Africa, and it spikes significantly during active outbreaks compared to times when the disease is quietly circulating in the background. The way scientists measure the disease also matters; studies that used a specific blood test called ELISA tended to find higher rates of infection than those using other methods. Furthermore, the size of the study played a role, with smaller groups of animals showing higher infection rates, likely because researchers often chose to test herds they already suspected were sick. The data also pointed to specific types of cattle that are more vulnerable. Animals that are older than two years, females, and those that are crossbred are more likely to carry the virus than younger, male, or purebred animals. Additionally, cattle that graze freely in open fields face a higher risk than those kept in more controlled, indoor environments, likely because they have more contact with the insects that carry the virus.
Despite the high numbers, the researchers noted that the data varies greatly from one study to another, making it difficult to pinpoint a single, perfect number for the entire continent. This variation comes from differences in how the studies were designed, the years they were conducted, and the specific tools used to detect the virus. However, the consistency of the findings regarding which animals are most at risk provides a clear path forward. The authors suggest that to control the spread of this disease, efforts should focus on these high-risk groups and the specific farming practices that leave them exposed. By understanding that the virus is already deeply embedded in many herds, authorities can move away from guessing and toward targeted strategies, such as better vaccination programs for crossbred cattle in extensive grazing systems, to protect the animals that feed and support so many communities.
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