Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Forest Productivity Using Integrated GIS Remote Sensing Climate and Socioeconomic Methods in Itang Special District Gambella Region Ethiopia

Forests are not static backdrops; they are living systems that breathe, grow, and shrink in response to the weather and the people who live among them. When the climate shifts, bringing hotter days or unpredictable rains, trees struggle to regenerate, and the ground beneath them changes. At the same time, human needs for food, fuel, and space often push against these natural limits, turning wild land into farms or settlements. Understanding how these two forces—the changing climate and human activity—work together to shape a forest is critical for the future of the planet. Scientists use tools that let them see the Earth from above, tracking how green the land is over time, while also listening to the people on the ground to understand why those changes are happening. This dual approach reveals not just where trees are disappearing, but why, offering a path toward protecting what remains.

In the Itang Special District of southwestern Ethiopia, a team of researchers set out to untangle this complex relationship. They focused on a region where the Baro River flows through a landscape that has long supported diverse plant life and local communities. By combining satellite images taken over several years with detailed surveys of local households, the team built a clear picture of how the forest has changed between 2017 and 2025. Their work reveals a story of rapid transformation, where the balance between nature and human survival is being tested by rising temperatures and the relentless need for agricultural land.

The researchers began by looking at the forest from space. Using satellite data, they measured the health of the vegetation across the district, a method that allows scientists to see how much green cover exists without needing to walk every inch of the terrain. They found that the forest was once the dominant feature of the landscape, covering nearly two-thirds of the area in 2017. However, by 2025, that coverage had dropped significantly, falling to less than half of the total land. In its place, farmland had expanded dramatically, taking up nearly the same amount of space that the forest once held. The data showed a steady, almost linear shift: as the years passed, trees gave way to crops, and the wild, dense canopy was replaced by fields.

This loss of trees was not happening evenly across the district. The researchers discovered that the distance from a road was a powerful predictor of forest health. Areas close to roads, within a few hundred meters, showed the most severe decline in vegetation. These zones were heavily disturbed by human activity, including the clearing of land for farming, the gathering of wood for cooking, and the growth of new settlements. In contrast, the forest patches located far from roads, several kilometers away, remained much greener and healthier. These remote areas, shielded by their inaccessibility, still held significant biomass and showed signs of natural regeneration. The pattern was clear: the easier it was for people to reach a forest, the more likely it was to be degraded.

While human activity was a major driver of change, the climate was also shifting in ways that made the forest's job harder. The team analyzed weather records from the past two decades and found that average temperatures had risen noticeably, climbing from roughly 24.8 degrees Celsius in the mid-2000s to over 27 degrees by 2025. At the same time, the rainfall had become less reliable. Instead of steady, predictable seasons, the region experienced more erratic patterns, with frequent droughts and intense bursts of rain that did not always help the trees grow. The researchers noted that areas receiving more rain tended to have healthier vegetation, but the overall trend of warming and drying was putting stress on the entire ecosystem, making it harder for forests to recover from the pressure of human use.

To understand the human side of this equation, the researchers spoke directly to the people living in the district. They interviewed over 200 households, held group discussions with community elders, and talked to local officials. The conversations revealed a deep dependence on the forest for daily survival. Most families relied on farming for their food, but they also depended heavily on the trees for fuel. Collecting firewood and making charcoal were the primary ways households cooked their meals, a necessity driven by a lack of other energy sources. When asked what was causing the forests to shrink, the community members pointed to the same factors the data had shown: the need to expand farmland to feed a growing population, the cutting of trees for wood, and the encroachment of new homes.

The study highlighted a difficult cycle. Poverty and a lack of alternative jobs meant that families had few choices but to use the forest resources directly. As the population grew, the demand for land and fuel increased, pushing the boundaries of the forest further back. The researchers found that those with less education and lower incomes were the most reliant on the forest, creating a situation where the very people who needed the forest the most were also the ones most likely to degrade it. The community members themselves noticed the changes, reporting that the rains were less consistent and that the forests they remembered from their youth were much smaller than what they saw today.

The findings suggest that the decline in forest productivity in Itang is not caused by a single factor, but by a combination of a warming climate and intense human pressure. The rising temperatures and shifting rains are weakening the forest's ability to bounce back, while the expansion of agriculture and the need for fuelwood are removing the trees faster than they can grow. The researchers concluded that without intervention, this trend will continue to erode the region's natural resources. They recommend a multi-pronged approach to reverse the damage. This includes promoting better farming techniques that do not require clearing new land, introducing alternative energy sources like solar power or efficient stoves to reduce the need for firewood, and launching reforestation projects to restore the lost green cover.

Ultimately, the study paints a picture of a landscape in transition, where the future of the forest depends on how well the community can adapt to a changing climate while finding new ways to meet their basic needs. The data shows that the forest is still there, particularly in the remote areas far from the roads, but it is under siege. Protecting it will require more than just watching from above; it will require understanding the daily lives of the people who depend on it and providing them with the tools to live sustainably. The path forward lies in balancing the need for food and fuel with the urgent need to preserve the ecosystem that supports them all.