Building risk knowledge for multi-hazard early warning and early action in humanitarian crises: Insights from the Dadaab Refugee Complex
This study co-produces tailored disaster risk knowledge for early warning and early action in the Dadaab Refugee Complex by analyzing the interconnected impacts of multi-hazards and root causes of vulnerability through participatory engagement, ultimately identifying key barriers and enablers to strengthen anticipatory humanitarian responses.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
In the world of disaster management, there is a growing recognition that knowing a storm is coming is only half the battle. The other half is understanding who will be hurt by it, why they are vulnerable, and exactly what steps can be taken before the first drop of rain falls. This approach, known as early warning and early action, relies on more than just weather forecasts; it requires a deep, shared understanding of risk. In refugee camps, where people have already lost their homes and livelihoods, the stakes are even higher. These settlements often sit in remote, harsh landscapes prone to droughts, floods, and extreme heat. When a disaster strikes here, the consequences are not just about the weather itself, but about how a lack of resources, crowded living conditions, and limited ability to move or earn money turn a natural event into a humanitarian crisis. The challenge for aid workers and scientists is to move beyond simple alerts and build a system where warnings lead directly to life-saving actions, tailored to the specific realities of people living in these precarious conditions.
A new study focuses on the Dadaab Refugee Complex in Kenya, one of the largest and most long-standing refugee settlements in the world. Home to nearly 420,000 people, the camp sits in a semi-arid region where the climate is becoming increasingly volatile. Researchers from the United Nations University, Deltares, and other institutions worked directly with refugees, aid workers, and members of the local host community to map out exactly how different dangers interact in this environment. Instead of looking at drought, fire, or floods as separate events, the team treated them as a connected web of risks. They found that these hazards do not happen in isolation; a long drought dries out the soil and vegetation, which then makes the area more susceptible to wildfires and, paradoxically, to flash floods when heavy rain finally arrives because the dry ground cannot absorb the water. This interconnectedness means that a single weather event can trigger a chain reaction of problems, from disease outbreaks to the collapse of roads needed for aid delivery.
The researchers spent time in the camps conducting focus groups, interviews, and walking tours to listen to the people living there. They discovered that the community already possesses a sophisticated understanding of these risks. Refugees know which areas flood first, how heatwaves affect their health, and where fires are most likely to start. However, the study highlights a critical gap: while the knowledge exists, it is often trapped in silos. Different aid groups focus on specific issues like food, water, or health, but they rarely share this information to create a complete picture of the danger. Furthermore, the people who know the most about the risks—often the refugees themselves, particularly young people and women-led groups—are not always included in the decision-making process for how to respond. The study suggests that the biggest obstacle is not a lack of data or technology, but a failure to connect the dots between what is known and who has the power to act on it.
One of the most striking findings is how the physical layout of the camp and the lack of infrastructure amplify these risks. Some parts of the settlement are built in low-lying areas that are naturally prone to flooding, yet there is often insufficient drainage or planning to protect them. When heavy rains come, as they did in 2024, roads become impassable, cutting off access to schools and medical clinics, and forcing aid agencies to drop food from airplanes because trucks cannot reach the ground. The study also points out that the vulnerability of the population is not uniform. Children, the elderly, pregnant women, and people with disabilities face much greater dangers than others, yet warning systems often treat everyone the same. The research emphasizes that effective early action must account for these differences, ensuring that the most vulnerable have access to information and the specific support they need to survive.
The paper argues that building a better system requires a shift in how humanitarian organizations operate. It calls for a move away from top-down approaches where experts dictate the plan, toward a model where refugees and local communities are active partners in designing and executing early warnings. The study identifies several practical steps that could make a difference, such as training youth groups to act as community messengers, creating joint teams that share data across different aid sectors, and using forecasts to trigger funding before a disaster hits. This "forecast-based financing" would allow aid groups to pre-position supplies like clean water and shelter materials when a risk is predicted, rather than waiting for the damage to occur. The authors note that while these solutions are technically feasible, they are often blocked by a lack of money and the constant pressure to deal with immediate emergencies rather than investing in preparedness.
Ultimately, the research paints a picture of a community that is resilient and knowledgeable but is held back by structural barriers. The people in Dadaab are not passive victims waiting for rescue; they are active agents who understand their environment and are ready to act. The study concludes that the path forward lies in bridging the gap between this local knowledge and the broader humanitarian system. By treating early warning and early action as a shared responsibility that involves everyone from the camp coordinator to the newest arrival, it is possible to create a safety net that is strong enough to withstand the complex, cascading risks of a changing climate. The goal is not just to warn people of danger, but to empower them with the resources and coordination needed to face it.
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