Do Waders, Swimmers, and Divers Exist? A GPS-Based Pilot Study of Site-Dependent Visitor Movement in Theme Parks
This GPS-based pilot study challenges the theme park industry's reliance on transferable visitor typologies by demonstrating that behavioral groups exist on a continuum, diverge from self-reported descriptions, and are fundamentally site-dependent, necessitating in-place calibration of movement parameters rather than borrowing them across different locations.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
Imagine a theme park as a giant, living puzzle. The people who design these parks (the "master planners") need to know how the pieces—the guests—will move around. If they get it wrong, the walkways get too crowded, lines get too long, or valuable land is wasted on empty paths.
For years, planners have used a simple mental model to guess how people move, sorting guests into three types based on a swimming pool metaphor:
- Waders: People who just want to stroll aimlessly, look at the pretty pictures, and soak up the atmosphere.
- Swimmers: People who plan a bit, mixing sightseeing with some rides.
- Divers: People who dive straight in, planning every second to ride as many attractions as possible.
The problem is, this model was just a guess. No one had ever actually tracked people with GPS to see if these "types" really exist or if they are just made-up categories.
This study is like a detective investigation. The researchers recruited 23 people to wear GPS trackers while visiting three different theme parks in Southern California. They then analyzed the tracks to see if they could mathematically sort these people back into the "Wader," "Swimmer," and "Diver" groups.
Here is what they found, explained simply:
1. The Groups Exist, But They Are Fuzzy
When the researchers looked at the data, they couldn't find three distinct, hard-edged groups (like separate islands). Instead, they found a spectrum or a gradient.
Think of it like a color wheel. You don't have a sharp line where "blue" ends and "green" begins; it's a smooth blend. The same is true for park guests. There are people who lean heavily toward "wading," people who lean heavily toward "diving," and many in the middle.
- The Good News: Even though the groups blend together, the researchers could consistently sort the same people into the same three buckets every time they ran the math. The "Divers" were always the ones hitting the most rides, and the "Waders" were always the ones wandering the most.
- The Catch: The groups weren't perfectly separated. It's not like sorting red balls from blue balls; it's more like sorting shades of purple.
2. What People Say vs. What They Do
The researchers also asked the guests to fill out a quick survey at the exit, asking things like, "Did you plan your day?" or "Do you consider yourself a wanderer or a planner?"
The result was surprising: The survey answers had almost nothing to do with how the guests actually moved.
- A guest might say, "I'm a careful planner!" but their GPS track showed them wandering aimlessly.
- Another might say, "I just want to relax," but their track showed them sprinting from ride to ride.
- The Lesson: You can't trust what people say they will do to predict how they will move. You have to watch what they actually do.
3. One Size Does Not Fit All (The Park Matters)
This is the most important discovery. The researchers tested if the rules for "Waders" and "Divers" were the same at every park. They found that the rules change depending on the park.
- At a regional park (Knott's Berry Farm): A "Diver" was someone who moved fast, skipped long lines, and visited many rides quickly.
- At a massive, expensive resort (Disney): A "Diver" might actually spend more time inside attractions and shops because the "experience" includes long, themed lines and immersive shopping.
It's like cooking. A recipe for "spicy" might mean adding hot sauce in one country, but using a specific type of chili pepper in another. If you use the "Knott's" definition of a Diver to design a "Disney" simulation, you will get the wrong answer. The behavior parameters are specific to the location.
4. It's About Where You Go, Not How You Walk
Finally, the researchers built a computer simulation to see what makes these different groups behave differently. They tested two ideas:
- Idea A: Maybe Divers walk faster and Waders walk slower?
- Idea B: Maybe Divers just choose to go to different places (thrill rides) while Waders choose different places (shops)?
The Result: Idea A didn't work. Even if you made the computer "Divers" walk faster, they didn't end up in the right spots.
The Winner: Idea B. The only way to make the simulation look real was to tell the "Divers" to choose the thrill rides and the "Waders" to choose the shops.
- The Metaphor: It doesn't matter if a car is a Ferrari or a minivan; if the Ferrari driver is told to go to the grocery store and the minivan driver is told to go to the race track, they will end up in different places. The destination choice matters more than the walking speed.
The Bottom Line
The "Wader/Swimmer/Diver" idea is useful, but it's not a set of rigid boxes. It's a smooth sliding scale that looks different at every park.
- Don't trust the survey: Ask people what they did, not what they think they did.
- Don't copy-paste: You can't use the same movement rules for a small local park and a giant Disney resort.
- Focus on the destination: To predict crowd flow, you need to know where people want to go, not just how fast they walk.
This study gives park planners a new, more accurate way to build their simulations, ensuring that when they design a new ride or a new walkway, they are designing it for the real, messy, diverse way people actually move.
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