Climate risk assessment for preventive conservation of the Jin Great Wall in Xilingol
This paper presents a GIS-based framework utilizing climate hazards, eco-environment exposure, and heritage fabric vulnerability to assess and map climate risks for the Jin Great Wall in Xilingol, revealing a southwest-to-northeast risk gradient that identifies priority areas for preventive conservation.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
The earth remembers the weather. Over centuries, the slow, relentless work of rain, wind, and freezing water can wear down even the sturdiest human creations. For ancient structures made of packed earth, like the Great Wall, this natural erosion is a constant threat. Climate change is making this threat more urgent, as shifting patterns of rainfall and temperature accelerate the decay of these fragile sites. To protect them, experts are moving away from simply fixing damage after it happens. Instead, they are trying to predict where the next blow will come from. This approach, known as preventive conservation, relies on understanding the specific risks a site faces: the hazards in the environment, how exposed the structure is to those hazards, and how vulnerable the material itself is to breaking down. By mapping these factors, researchers can decide which parts of a historic site need immediate attention and which can wait, ensuring that limited resources are used where they matter most.
In the vast, semi-arid grasslands of Inner Mongolia, a team of researchers applied this logic to a specific section of the Jin Great Wall. Unlike the famous stone walls built by the Ming Dynasty, the Jin Great Wall was constructed largely from rammed earth, a mixture of soil and gravel compacted by hand. Much of it has survived for nearly a thousand years, but it now sits in a harsh environment where drought, dust storms, and extreme temperature swings are common. The researchers focused on the Xilingol League, a region where the wall stretches for over 1,000 kilometers, crossing through different types of grassland and desert steppe. Their goal was to create a detailed map that would show exactly which parts of this long, linear ruin are most at risk from the changing climate.
To build this map, the team gathered a wide range of data about the land and the wall itself. They looked at climate factors such as how much rain falls in an area, how often the ground freezes and thaws, and how many days a year experience strong winds. They also examined the condition of the land, measuring how much vegetation covers the soil, how fast the soil is washing or blowing away, and how much the land has turned to desert. Finally, they assessed the wall itself, noting how much of the original structure remains standing, its statutory protection level, and how close it is to human activities like roads and grazing lands. By combining these different pieces of information, they created a model that weighs the importance of each factor. In their analysis, climate hazards and eco-environmental exposure were assigned the highest weights, while the heritage value of specific sections was treated as a factor with a lower relative weight in the overall risk calculation.
The resulting map reveals a clear pattern across the landscape. The risk to the Jin Great Wall is not the same everywhere; it changes dramatically from one place to another. The danger is highest in the western and northern parts of the study area, particularly in the Sonid Left Banner and Sonid Right Banner regions. Here, the combination of very little rain, frequent strong winds, and sparse vegetation creates a perfect storm for erosion. In these areas, the ground dries out quickly, making it easy for the wind to strip away soil and for the wall to crumble. The map shows that these high-risk zones form a distinct belt stretching across the region. In contrast, the eastern and southern parts of the study area are generally safer. These areas receive more moisture, have denser plant cover to hold the soil in place, and experience fewer extreme weather events, making the environment less hostile to the ancient earthworks.
When the researchers overlaid the actual path of the Jin Great Wall onto this risk map, the findings became even more specific. They found that about half of the mapped route passes through areas classified as having moderate to high risk. The southwestern sections of the wall, which run through the most arid and windy zones, are under the most severe pressure. These sections face a triple threat: the freeze-thaw cycle that cracks the earth, the wind that sands it away, and the dryness that weakens its structure. The northern route also crosses a dangerous belt of high risk. However, the western branch of the wall in the Lingnan line is situated in a lower-risk zone, where conditions are more favorable for preservation. This spatial difference means that a single strategy cannot protect the entire wall; what works for one section might be useless for another.
The study concludes that this kind of detailed mapping is essential for saving the Jin Great Wall. It allows conservationists to stop guessing and start targeting. In the high-risk western and northern corridors, the priority should be intensive monitoring and immediate stabilization of the walls to prevent collapse. In the moderate-risk areas, regular inspections and routine maintenance are appropriate. For the lower-risk sections in the southeast, the focus can shift to community involvement, helping local residents understand how their daily activities, like grazing livestock, might still disturb the fragile surface. The researchers acknowledge that their map is a broad screening tool and not a perfect diagnosis for every single meter of the wall. It does not yet account for the specific strength of the soil in every spot or the exact intensity of grazing pressure. However, it provides a clear, evidence-based guide for where to direct the scarce funds and technical expertise needed to keep this ancient heritage from disappearing. By understanding the specific climate risks facing each segment, we can ensure that the Jin Great Wall endures for the future.
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