Nationwide exposure modelling and scenario-based seismic risk assessment of school buildings in North Macedonia
This study addresses the lack of a nationwide exposure model for North Macedonia by developing the first comprehensive inventory of 1,129 school buildings and utilizing it to assess seismic risk through two historical earthquake scenarios, thereby providing a critical framework for evidence-based retrofit planning and emergency preparedness.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
Earthquakes do not just shake the ground; they test the resilience of the communities built upon it. In the science of disaster risk, three elements determine how much harm a quake causes: the strength of the shaking, the number of people and buildings in the path, and how well those structures can withstand the force. While scientists have long mapped the shaking potential across the globe, the inventory of what stands in the way—specifically the places where children learn—has often been missing in many regions. Without a clear picture of which school buildings exist, what they are made of, and where they are located, it is impossible to know which ones are most likely to fail or to plan effectively for their protection. This gap is particularly critical in North Macedonia, a country situated in a seismically active zone where schools serve not only as classrooms but also as vital shelters for families after a disaster.
Researchers from North Macedonia and Portugal have now filled this void by creating the first complete, nationwide map of the country's school buildings. They gathered information from government records, land registries, and past studies to build a digital model of 1,129 primary and secondary schools. This model does more than just list addresses; it classifies each building by its construction material, such as whether it is made of brick, concrete, or stone, and notes its age and size. By combining this detailed inventory with computer simulations of how different types of buildings react to shaking, the team was able to estimate the potential damage and human cost of two of the most significant earthquakes in the nation's history: the devastating 1963 quake in the capital, Skopje, and the powerful 1931 event in the southeast.
The study reveals that the current stock of school buildings in North Macedonia is heavily reliant on older construction methods. Roughly 70 percent of the schools are built from unreinforced masonry or concrete frames that lack modern flexibility, making them particularly vulnerable to strong shaking. When the researchers simulated a repeat of the 1963 Skopje earthquake, the results showed that nearly half of the schools in the capital region would likely escape damage, but a significant portion would suffer severe structural failure. The simulations indicated that about 13 percent of the schools in the affected area could be completely destroyed, with the highest risk concentrated in the urban core where the shaking is most intense. In a scenario where these buildings were occupied during school hours, the model suggests that over 160 people could lose their lives, with the vast majority of the economic loss falling on the primary schools in the city center.
The second scenario, modeling a repeat of the 1931 Valandovo earthquake, painted a different picture. While the total number of damaged buildings and the overall economic loss were lower than in the Skopje scenario, the impact was more severe for rural communities. In this simulation, regional schools in remote villages were far more likely to be completely destroyed than the larger central schools. This is because many of these rural buildings are older, single-story structures made of stone or brick without modern reinforcement, and they are often located closer to the fault line. The simulations suggested that while the total number of potential fatalities would be lower, around 31 people, the damage to the physical infrastructure in these rural areas would be disproportionately high, threatening the educational continuity of entire communities.
A key finding of the research is that the age and type of construction are the strongest predictors of survival. Buildings constructed before 1964, before strict seismic design codes were introduced in the region, are the most likely to suffer catastrophic damage. In contrast, schools built after 1981, which follow updated engineering standards, show a much higher capacity to withstand the simulated shaking. The researchers also noted that the results are based on computer models of future events, not a recounting of the past. The actual 1963 and 1931 earthquakes occurred at night or during holidays when schools were empty, which is why the historical death tolls were not caused by school collapses. The numbers presented in this study represent the potential human cost if similar earthquakes were to strike while the buildings were full of students and teachers.
This work provides the first clear, data-driven foundation for protecting North Macedonia's educational infrastructure. By identifying exactly which municipalities and which types of buildings are at the greatest risk, the study offers a roadmap for decision-makers. It allows local authorities to prioritize which schools need urgent retrofitting and helps emergency planners understand where to focus their resources. The model is not a static list but a living tool that can be updated as new information becomes available, ensuring that the country's approach to seismic safety evolves alongside its understanding of the threat. For a nation where schools are the heart of the community and a refuge in crisis, knowing the strength of these buildings is the first step toward ensuring they remain standing when the ground shakes.
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