Quantum technology adoption in Japanese industry: prevalence, application interests, timelines, and barriers
Based on a census-style survey of all Japanese listed firms adjusted for response bias, this study reveals that while nearly 60% of companies express interest in quantum technologies, concrete adoption remains rare due to talent shortages and indecision, highlighting a critical need for business demonstrations and partnership brokering over mere financial support.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
Quantum technology is a field where the rules of the very small—atoms and subatomic particles—are harnessed to solve problems that are currently impossible for standard computers. Imagine a machine that does not just calculate one possibility at a time, but explores many possibilities simultaneously, allowing it to find solutions for complex tasks like designing new medicines, optimizing global shipping routes, or breaking down chemical reactions with unprecedented speed. Governments around the world, including Japan, have launched major initiatives to build this future, pouring money into hardware and research. Yet, while the supply side of this industry—the companies building the machines and the software—is well documented, the demand side remains a mystery. It is unclear which actual businesses are ready to use these tools, what specific problems they hope to solve, and what is stopping them from taking the leap from curiosity to action.
To answer these questions, a team of researchers at the University of Osaka conducted a massive, systematic survey of the entire population of companies listed on Japanese stock exchanges. Instead of asking a small, self-selected group of companies that already claimed to be interested in technology, the researchers mailed a questionnaire to every single listed firm in the country, totaling 3,890 companies. This approach allowed them to see the full picture, including the vast majority of companies that might be ignoring the technology entirely. They received usable responses from 154 firms, a small number, but because they knew the exact characteristics of every company they contacted, they could mathematically adjust their results to represent the entire population of Japanese listed firms accurately.
The results reveal a landscape defined by a wide gap between interest and action. While nearly 60 percent of Japanese listed companies say they are at least interested in quantum technology, only a tiny fraction has moved beyond that initial curiosity. Just 7 percent of these firms have begun concrete activities, such as running tests or building prototypes. The vast majority of those who are interested are stuck in the planning phase, unsure of how to proceed. When asked when they expect to fully commercialize these technologies, most engaged companies could not name a target year. Only 3 percent believe they will be fully operational by 2030, while nearly two-thirds remain undecided, suggesting that while the idea of quantum technology is popular, the roadmap to using it is still foggy.
The companies that are actually moving forward are almost exclusively the largest ones. Among firms with 5,000 or more employees, 40 percent are actively working on quantum projects. In contrast, smaller companies with fewer than 5,000 employees show very little activity. This pattern suggests that adopting this technology requires significant organizational resources and prior expertise, capabilities that only the biggest corporations currently possess. The interests of these engaged firms are also specific: they are most excited about using quantum tools for machine learning, simulating chemical reactions, and solving complex optimization problems, rather than building the hardware itself.
Perhaps the most surprising finding concerns what is actually holding these companies back. The most common obstacle cited is not a lack of money, but a severe shortage of people with the right skills. Over 85 percent of engaged firms say they cannot find enough talent with quantum expertise. Furthermore, companies that have not yet started active projects struggle with a lack of clear decision-making criteria and a shortage of partners to collaborate with. When asked what would help them move forward, the most requested support was not government funding, which only 10 percent of firms prioritized. Instead, they asked for expert demonstrations of how quantum technology could solve real business problems and for help in finding collaboration partners. The data suggests that for Japanese industry, the path to adoption is blocked less by a lack of cash and more by a lack of clear examples, skilled workers, and trusted connections.
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