Planetary health protein targets for national and retailer food strategies

Technical Summary: Planetary Health Protein Targets for National and Retailer Food Strategies

Problem Statement
Governments, retailers, and investors are increasingly formulating protein strategies to align food systems with climate, biodiversity, and public health goals. However, these strategies currently lack a common quantitative benchmark. While there is a scientific consensus that shifting toward plant-rich diets is necessary to align with planetary boundaries, the specific magnitude of the "protein gap"—the difference between current production/consumption and levels aligned with the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet (PHD)—remains largely unknown at the country level. Furthermore, existing strategies often lack a joined-up approach across the value chain, and the extent to which protein from specific food groups needs to shift (up or down) in different global regions is not clearly quantified.

Methodology
The study utilizes the FABIO (Food and Agriculture Biomass Input-Output) multi-regional physical input–output database to translate the updated 2025 EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet (PHD 2.0) into country-level benchmarks. The analysis covers 191 countries and 123 food commodities for the year 2020.

• Data Integration: The authors map 72 of the 123 FABIO food items to the 14 PHD food groups. The analysis distinguishes between High-Income Countries (HICs), Upper-Middle-Income Countries (UMICs), and Lower-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). Low-income countries are included in global aggregates but not transitioned to the PHD scenario due to data uncertainty.
• Scenario Modeling: The current food production and consumption patterns serve as a baseline. The PHD 2.0 is applied as a counterfactual scenario, assuming current population, productivity, climate feedbacks on yields, and technology levels to enable direct comparison.
• Trade and Supply Chains: The analysis accounts for international trade. Environmental impacts (GHG and land use) are calculated based on current supply patterns. For instance, if a country reduces beef consumption, the associated land-use savings are distributed according to current import/export ratios.
• Exclusions: The analysis excludes emissions from land-use change (deforestation) and focuses on direct and indirect GHG emissions. Fish is included in GHG and diet calculations but excluded from land-use analysis as feed allocation is not tracked for fish in FABIO. "Other foods" (alcohol, coffee, tea, spices) are excluded due to negligible protein contribution.

Key Contributions
This paper provides the first PHD-aligned country-level benchmarks for protein consumption and production, offering a targeting heuristic for policy and retail strategies.

1. Quantification of the Protein Gap: It translates the global PHD into specific national requirements, identifying the scale and geography of the plant protein gap and the corresponding reduction in animal-sourced protein (ASP).
2. Segmentation of Actors: The study identifies "Super Producer" and "Super Consumer" nations that dominate global totals, highlighting them as early leverage points for policy intervention.
3. Differentiation of Production vs. Consumption: It explicitly separates production targets from consumption targets, revealing that trade patterns can lead to significant discrepancies (e.g., a country may produce a high percentage of animal protein for export while consuming mostly plant protein).

Key Results

• Global Protein Shifts: Under the PHD 2.0, global per capita protein consumption remains largely unchanged at 78 g/day. However, the composition shifts drastically: plant-sourced protein (PSP) must increase by 28%, while animal-sourced protein (ASP) must decrease by 35%.
• Regional Disparities:
  • HICs and UMICs: These regions currently consume ASP at levels nearly double or triple PHD recommendations. They face the largest reductions in total protein intake and ASP.
  • LMICs: ASP consumption is generally closer to PHD recommendations, though PSP consumption remains below targets.
• Food Group Specifics: The transition requires substantial reductions in pork (79%), beef (66%), eggs (46%), rice (41%), and dairy milk (28%). Conversely, it necessitates massive increases in legumes, nuts, seeds, and specific oils (e.g., peas +588%, coconuts +489%, soybeans +446%).
• Environmental Impact: Aligning with the PHD would reduce food-system GHG emissions by 16% and land use by 33% (approximately 1,170 Mha, an area comparable to the US, Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba combined). Beef remains the largest source of food-system GHGs even under the PHD, followed by dairy milk.
• Super Producers and Consumers: Five countries (US, Brazil, China, India, Russia) account for 50% of global protein production and consumption.
  • Production Shifts: Under the PHD, production in the US, Brazil, China, and Russia would see reductions of >70% in beef, pork, and eggs, and increases of >400% in legumes and pulses. India is an exception, where poultry, beef, and pork production would increase (>300%) to meet rising demand, alongside a 41% decline in rice production.
  • Consumption Shifts: Total protein consumption would fall by 15–21% in China, the US, and Brazil, but increase by 10–23% in Indonesia and India.

Significance and Claims
The authors claim that their results offer a direct, quantitative foundation for existing and emerging national protein strategies and retailer sales targets. By identifying the specific "gap" between current levels and PHD-aligned levels, the study enables a targeted approach to rebalancing protein sources across food groups and geographies.

The paper asserts that these benchmarks are critical for:

• Policy Formulation: Assisting governments in translating protein gaps into relevant plans, targets, and policies, including agricultural subsidy realignment to make plant-sourced foods more competitive.
• Retail Strategy: Providing retailers with quantitative, PHD-aligned protein split targets to reduce environmental impacts.
• Climate and Biodiversity Goals: Demonstrating that shifting food consumption to the PHD is a major lever for meeting Paris Agreement and Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets, particularly through the reduction of land use and GHG emissions.

The study concludes that while the global shift is characterized by a reduction in ASP and an increase in PSP, the specific composition of diets and production must be locally optimized to account for trade barriers, cultural preferences, and national policies. The authors emphasize that a "joined-up" approach spanning production to consumption is essential for successful implementation.