A Climate Gentrification Assessment Framework for Low-Lying Coastal Cities: Evidence from Lagos, Nigeria
This study challenges the elevation-centric understanding of climate gentrification by proposing and applying a new assessment framework to Lagos, Nigeria, which demonstrates that disparities in infrastructure resilience and investment, rather than geographical height, drive housing-market transformation and socio-spatial inequality in low-lying coastal cities.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
Imagine a city where the ground is flat, barely rising above the ocean, and the threat of flooding is a constant reality for everyone. In such a place, you might expect that the danger of water would be spread evenly, affecting rich and poor neighborhoods alike. Yet, in many coastal cities around the world, a different pattern is emerging. As climate change brings more intense rains and rising seas, people and money are moving toward areas that feel safer. This movement changes the character of neighborhoods, often pushing out the people who have lived there for generations. This process is known as climate gentrification. For years, researchers have studied this phenomenon mostly in places like Miami, where the explanation has been simple: higher ground is safer, so it becomes more valuable, while lower ground becomes less desirable. But what happens in cities where the ground is flat everywhere? Does the same rule apply, or is there a different force at work?
A new study set out to answer this question by looking at Lagos, Nigeria, one of the fastest-growing and most flood-prone cities on the African continent. The researchers, led by Godson Wogu, Kemi Adeyeye, and Alex Copping, wanted to understand how climate gentrification works when elevation—the height of the land above sea level—cannot be the main reason for change. In Lagos, the entire coastal area is low-lying, meaning that a simple difference in height cannot explain why one neighborhood is booming while another is struggling. Instead of looking for hills, the team looked for something else: the quality of the infrastructure. They asked whether the presence of strong drainage systems, well-maintained roads, and reliable waste management could create a "climate advantage" just as effectively as high ground does.
To build a clear picture, the researchers first gathered evidence from fifteen different studies published between 2018 and 2025. These studies covered climate gentrification in cities across the globe, from the United States to Australia and the Philippines. By carefully reading and comparing these reports, the team identified three main things that always happen when climate gentrification occurs: changes in the physical environment, shifts in the local economy and housing market, and the role of government planning. They also found three specific ways these changes interact. First, money is invested to make an area more resilient to floods. Second, that investment makes the area look more attractive to wealthy buyers and developers. Third, this combination drives up prices and makes it harder for lower-income residents to stay. The researchers packaged these findings into a new tool, a framework designed to spot climate gentrification in any coastal city, regardless of its topography.
The team then took this framework to Lagos and applied it to six different coastal neighborhoods. They chose four areas on the Lagos Island side—Ikoyi, Victoria Island, Maroko, and Lekki—and two on the mainland side—Makoko and Apapa. Using a combination of field observations, satellite maps, and local housing data, they walked through these neighborhoods to see what was actually there. The difference was stark. In the Island neighborhoods, the researchers saw modern houses, wide paved roads, and extensive drainage systems that were clearly maintained. There was evidence of new construction and heavy investment. In contrast, the mainland neighborhoods showed signs of neglect: informal housing, blocked drainage channels, piles of waste, and roads that turned into rivers during the rain. Crucially, the digital maps confirmed that all these neighborhoods sat at roughly the same low elevation. The land was flat everywhere; the difference was not in the ground, but in the pipes and roads built on top of it.
The housing market told the same story. In the well-equipped neighborhoods, property values and rents were significantly higher, and the area was seeing a wave of new, luxury developments. In the neglected areas, housing remained older and cheaper, with little sign of new investment. The researchers found that the "climate advantage" in Lagos was not about being on a hill; it was about having the infrastructure to keep the water out. This uneven distribution of resilience created a divide where some communities felt safe and desirable, while others remained vulnerable and economically stagnant. The study suggests that in low-lying cities, the ability to pay for or access good infrastructure is becoming the new determinant of safety, replacing elevation as the primary driver of neighborhood change.
This finding challenges the long-held belief that climate gentrification is solely a story of high ground versus low ground. The authors argue that while elevation matters in some places, it is not the only way climate risk reshapes a city. In places like Lagos, the spatial production of safety is driven by investment decisions. When governments and private developers pour money into drainage and roads in specific areas, they inadvertently create a market where those areas become exclusive enclaves of safety. This process can happen even when the entire city is at risk of flooding. The study does not claim to have solved the problem of inequality, but it provides a new way to see it. By showing that infrastructure resilience can act as a powerful engine for gentrification, the research highlights a critical gap in how we plan for climate change. If we only focus on building sea walls or elevating land, we might miss the fact that the very act of building resilience in one spot can leave another spot behind, deepening the divide between those who can afford to be safe and those who cannot.
The implications of this work extend beyond Lagos. As more coastal cities face the reality of rising seas and intense storms, the way they choose to invest in protection will shape their social future. The study suggests that planners and policymakers need to look beyond the physical landscape and consider how their decisions about roads, drains, and housing affect who gets to stay and who gets pushed out. The framework developed by the researchers offers a way to track these changes, helping to ensure that the benefits of climate adaptation are shared more fairly. In a world where the ground may be flat for everyone, the question is no longer just about where the water will rise, but about who gets the tools to keep it away.
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