Iranian Elite Perceptions of the Underlying Factors of the Iran‑Russia Strategic Partnership
This study employs a mixed-methods approach to reveal that Iranian elites perceive the Iran-Russia strategic partnership as a structural epiphenomenon driven primarily by systemic pressures and shared threats against Western hegemony, rather than by internal factors like trust or institutional cooperation.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
In the study of how nations interact, there is a long-standing debate about what truly binds countries together. Some observers believe that deep friendship, shared values, and formal treaties are the glue that holds alliances in place. Others argue that nations are driven almost entirely by fear and the need to survive against powerful enemies. When two countries that do not naturally trust one another begin to work closely together, it is often because the world around them has become dangerous, forcing them to stand side by side. This dynamic is at the heart of the relationship between Iran and Russia. For decades, these two nations have moved from cautious cooperation to a formalized strategic partnership, signing major agreements and coordinating their military and economic actions. Understanding why this happened is crucial, not just for historians, but for anyone trying to grasp the shifting balance of power in the Middle East and beyond.
A researcher named Saeed Khavarinejad set out to understand this relationship from the inside, specifically by asking the people who make the decisions in Iran. He wanted to know if the bond between Tehran and Moscow was built on genuine trust and shared goals, or if it was a reaction to outside pressure. To find the answer, he did not rely on guesswork or public speeches alone. Instead, he conducted a large-scale investigation involving 409 educated Iranian experts, including politicians, diplomats, military commanders, and scholars. He asked them to rate their agreement with various statements about the relationship and then held in-depth, private conversations with 20 of these same experts to hear their stories and reasoning in their own words.
The results of this investigation point to a clear and somewhat stark conclusion. The Iranian elites surveyed do not believe that their partnership with Russia is driven by mutual affection, deep trust, or a desire to build a permanent alliance based on shared values. Instead, they see the relationship as a structural necessity, a direct response to the pressures of the global system. The primary force pulling Iran and Russia together is the perception of a shared threat, specifically from the United States and Western powers. When these external powers apply sanctions or exert military pressure, it forces Iran and Russia to rely on each other for survival. The data showed that while these two nations cooperate on military technology and trade, the underlying engine of their partnership is the fear of isolation and the need to counterbalance Western dominance.
Perhaps the most surprising finding is that the usual ingredients of a strong alliance are largely missing. The study found that mutual trust and political will play a very minor role in keeping the partnership alive. In fact, many of the experts interviewed expressed deep skepticism about the reliability of their Russian counterparts. They described the relationship as pragmatic and opportunistic, driven by immediate needs rather than long-term loyalty. Similarly, the formal institutions and treaties that the two countries have signed were not seen as the cause of their closeness. Instead, these agreements were viewed as the result of the pressure they are under, a way to formalize a connection that already exists out of necessity. The researchers found that even when trust is low and institutional frameworks are weak, the partnership remains strong because the external pressure forcing them together is so intense.
The study also uncovered two practical factors that help the partnership work, even without deep trust. First, the two countries have military capabilities that fit together like puzzle pieces. Iran has developed expertise in asymmetric warfare and regional presence, while Russia possesses advanced conventional technology. This complementarity allows them to support each other effectively in places like Syria. Second, they share economic interests, though these are often born out of shared vulnerability to sanctions rather than natural market fit. They trade and cooperate because they both need to bypass the restrictions imposed by the West. However, the experts made it clear that these practical benefits are secondary to the main driver: the systemic pressure of a world where they feel surrounded by hostile powers.
This research challenges the idea that international alliances are built on friendship or shared ideology. Instead, it suggests that in a world of shifting power dynamics, nations will align themselves based on the logic of survival. The partnership between Iran and Russia is not a marriage of hearts, but a strategic union of necessity. The findings suggest that as long as the external pressure from Western powers remains high, this bond will likely remain strong, regardless of whether the two nations truly trust each other. For policymakers watching this relationship, the lesson is that trying to drive a wedge between them with broad sanctions might actually backfire, as it reinforces the very external pressure that keeps them together. The alliance is resilient not because of love, but because the alternative—facing the world alone—seems far more dangerous.
Drowning in papers in your field?
Get daily digests of the most novel papers matching your research keywords — with technical summaries, in your language.