Reconciling Domestic Energy Security and Regional Geopolitics in Eastern Africa’s Electricity Trade and Integration
This study argues that while regional electricity trade within the Eastern Africa Power Pool has enhanced domestic energy security, particularly for smaller nations, achieving resilient low-carbon transitions requires a differentiated, sequenced integration strategy that addresses regulatory, political, and geopolitical barriers through harmonized regulations and de-risking mechanisms.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
Imagine a region where the sun blazes with enough heat to power entire cities, where rivers carve deep valleys capable of generating immense electricity, and where the wind sweeps across vast plains. This is Eastern Africa, a place rich in natural energy but often struggling to keep the lights on. For decades, the challenge here has been twofold: ensuring that every country has enough power for its own homes and industries, while also figuring out how to share that power across borders. When a drought hits one nation, its hydroelectric dams dry up, causing blackouts. When another nation has a surplus, that extra energy often sits unused because the wires to connect the two systems are missing or broken. The solution seems obvious on paper: build a massive, interconnected grid where countries trade electricity like neighbors sharing tools. But in reality, the path to this shared grid is blocked by a complex mix of politics, unstable governments, and the very different ways each country manages its own energy.
A team of researchers from University College London set out to understand why this regional energy dream has been so difficult to realize. They focused on the Eastern Africa Power Pool, a group of thirteen nations that have been trying to coordinate their electricity systems since 2005. The researchers did not just look at the wires and power plants; they examined the policies, laws, and political tensions that dictate how these systems actually work. They analyzed hundreds of documents, from national energy strategies to regional trade agreements, to see where the plans matched up and where they fell apart. Their goal was to find out why, despite the clear benefits of sharing power, the region remains fragmented, and to propose a way forward that respects the unique needs of each country while still building a stronger regional network.
The study reveals that the region is not a single, uniform block but a patchwork of very different energy systems. Some countries, like Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, rely heavily on massive hydroelectric dams. These nations have the potential to be the region's powerhouses, exporting huge amounts of electricity. However, their dependence on water makes them vulnerable to droughts, and their political instability can disrupt the flow of power to neighbors. Other countries, like Kenya, have successfully diversified their mix, using geothermal heat from the earth and solar power to create a more stable system. Then there are nations like Egypt and Libya, where electricity comes mostly from burning natural gas and oil, and smaller, fragile systems in places like Somalia and South Sudan that rely on isolated diesel generators or have almost no national grid at all.
The researchers found that while the idea of a unified market is strong in theory, the reality is held back by a lack of trust and coordination. The plans to build new transmission lines—the high-voltage cables that carry electricity across borders—are often delayed by civil conflicts, border disputes, and disagreements over water rights. For instance, the construction of a giant dam in Ethiopia has created tension with downstream neighbors who fear their water supply will be affected, making it hard to agree on how to share the electricity that dam produces. Furthermore, the rules for trading power are not the same everywhere. Some countries have open markets where private companies can sell electricity, while others are still run entirely by state-owned monopolies. This mismatch means that even when a power line is built, the countries on either end often cannot agree on the price or the terms of the trade.
A key finding of the paper is that trying to force all these different countries into a single, standardized system is likely to fail. The researchers argue that a "one size fits all" approach ignores the fact that a country with a stable gas-powered grid has different needs than a country struggling to build its first national transmission line. Instead, they suggest a more flexible strategy. They propose that integration should happen in steps, tailored to the specific situation of each nation. For countries with strong grids, the focus should be on connecting to neighbors to share renewable energy. For countries with weak or non-existent grids, the priority must be to fix their own internal systems first; building a massive cross-border line to a country with no local grid is like building a highway to a village with no houses—it leads to wasted money and unused infrastructure.
The study also highlights the critical role of politics in engineering. The researchers show that technical solutions, such as new power lines or better software for managing the grid, cannot work without political stability and legal agreements. In many cases, the biggest obstacle is not a lack of technology or money, but the inability of neighboring governments to agree on how to share risks and benefits. For example, if a drought causes a country to need more power, the rules need to be clear on whether its neighbors must help, or if they can simply cut off the supply to save their own energy. Without these clear, trusted rules, countries remain hesitant to invest in the expensive infrastructure needed for regional trade.
Ultimately, the paper concludes that the path to a secure and green energy future in Eastern Africa lies in patience and differentiation. The researchers suggest that the region should move away from the idea of a single, instant regional market and instead build a network of smaller, more manageable connections that grow over time. This approach would allow countries to strengthen their own energy security first, making them better partners for regional trade later. By aligning regional goals with local realities, and by creating mechanisms to handle political tensions and climate risks, the Eastern Africa Power Pool could eventually become a reliable source of clean energy for millions. The vision is not to erase national boundaries, but to weave them together in a way that makes the whole system stronger, more resilient, and capable of weathering the storms of both climate change and political uncertainty.
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