Empirical Study of the determinants of E-Commerce Adoption Challenges and Opportunities in Mogadishu, Somalia

In the bustling streets of Mogadishu, a city rebuilding itself after decades of conflict, a quiet revolution is taking place. It is not happening in banks or government halls, but in the pockets of people holding smartphones. This is the story of how a post-conflict economy is learning to trade without physical markets, a shift driven by the rapid spread of mobile technology and the desperate need for new ways to earn a living. At the heart of this change is a concept known as e-commerce, which simply means buying and selling goods over the internet. For a long time, experts believed that for this kind of trade to work, a country needed perfect roads, reliable electricity, and strict laws to protect buyers. However, in places like Somalia, these traditional foundations are often missing or broken. The question researchers have been asking is not just whether people in such difficult environments can use the internet to trade, but what actually pushes them to do so. Is it the promise of easy money, the fear of being left behind, or perhaps something as simple as having tried it before and knowing it works? Understanding these drivers is crucial because if online trade can take root here, it could offer a lifeline of jobs and stability to a generation that has known very little else.

A team of researchers from Salaam University decided to find the answers by listening directly to the people living this reality. They surveyed 201 individuals in Mogadishu, a mix of students, business owners, and everyday shoppers, asking them about their habits, their fears, and their hopes regarding online shopping. They did not just ask if people used the internet; they dug deeper to understand the specific factors that made someone a frequent user versus someone who avoided it entirely. The researchers were looking for the invisible threads that connect a person's background to their willingness to embrace digital trade. They wanted to know if the challenges of a city still recovering from war, such as poor delivery services or the risk of fraud, were enough to stop people, or if the promise of new opportunities was strong enough to overcome those fears.

The results of their investigation reveal a landscape that is far more dynamic than the obstacles might suggest. The most powerful force driving people to adopt e-commerce turned out to be experience itself. Those who had already tried buying or selling online were nearly ten times more likely to be heavy users than those who had never tried. This suggests that once the initial hurdle is crossed, the habit sticks. The researchers also found that the type of job a person holds matters significantly. Students were far more likely to be active participants in the digital market compared to those who were unemployed or working as general consumers. This points to a generation that is naturally more comfortable with technology and perhaps more eager to find new ways to make a living. Interestingly, the length of time a person has lived in the city played a surprising role. People who had been residents of Mogadishu for more than ten years were much less likely to adopt these new methods compared to newer arrivals. This suggests that long-term residents might be more set in their traditional ways, while newcomers are more willing to adapt to the fast-changing digital environment.

While experience and occupation were key, the researchers also uncovered a profound link between the belief in job creation and the act of using e-commerce. The study found that people who strongly believed that online trade could create jobs for young people and women were overwhelmingly more likely to be high-level users of these platforms. In fact, those who felt most strongly about this potential were eighty-four times more likely to be active adopters than those who did not share that view. This indicates that the motivation to participate is not just about personal convenience, but about a collective hope for economic renewal. The perception that the digital economy can provide a path to employment is a far stronger driver than the availability of specific technologies or even the promise of saving money.

Despite this optimism, the barriers are real and tangible. The survey confirmed that the biggest hurdles are the risks associated with payments and the unreliability of delivery services. Nearly half of the respondents cited security concerns, such as fraud, and the lack of a solid banking infrastructure as major reasons to hesitate. The cost of internet data and the gaps in government regulations also weigh heavily on the minds of users. Yet, the way people navigate these problems is telling. Instead of waiting for perfect conditions, they are using what is available. Social media platforms have become the primary gateway for commerce, with nearly two-thirds of users relying on them to conduct business, far more than they use dedicated shopping websites. Mobile money, which allows people to send and receive cash via phone, has become the trusted engine that keeps these transactions moving, filling the void left by traditional banks.

The study paints a picture of a city that is not waiting for permission to modernize. It is a place where the drive to create opportunities is outpacing the limitations of the infrastructure. The researchers found that while trust in the system is still fragile, the belief in the potential for growth is robust. The findings suggest that the path forward for Mogadishu's digital economy does not necessarily require waiting for all the roads to be paved or all the laws to be written. Instead, the momentum is being built on the shoulders of those who are already using the tools, particularly the youth and those who see a future in creating jobs for others. By focusing on the platforms people already trust, like social media and mobile money, and by addressing the specific fears around security and delivery, the city can turn its current challenges into a foundation for a resilient and inclusive digital future. The work of these researchers offers a clear roadmap: support the experience of those who are already trying, amplify the message that this trade creates jobs, and build the safety nets that allow trust to grow. In a place where the past has been defined by instability, the future is being written in the clicks and swipes of a new generation.