Missing Girl-Only Families in India: A New Demographic Indicator to Measure Son Preference
Drawing on National Family Health Survey data, this paper proposes "missing girl-only families"—the discrepancy between the expected and observed proportion of families with only daughters—as a novel demographic indicator to better measure and analyze the extent and determinants of son preference in India.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
In the study of human populations, demographers have long tracked a stark imbalance in India: far fewer girls are being born or surviving than would be expected by nature. This phenomenon, often called "missing women," has been a central focus of research for decades. Traditionally, scientists have measured this bias by counting the number of boys versus girls at birth or by asking parents how many sons and daughters they ideally want. These methods have provided a clear picture of the scale of the problem. However, they often miss a quieter, more structural consequence of this preference. When parents deeply desire a son, they do not just stop having children once they have a daughter; they often keep trying until a son arrives, or they intervene before birth to ensure a male child is born. This behavior changes the very makeup of families, making it rare to find a household that consists entirely of daughters.
A new study by researchers Amresh Senapati and Udaya Shankar Mishra shifts the focus from counting individual missing girls to counting missing family types. Instead of looking only at the sex ratio, they examine the proportion of families that have only daughters and no sons. In a world where parents do not favor one sex over the other, a significant number of families would naturally end up with only girls. In India, however, these families are far fewer than nature would predict. By comparing the number of girl-only families that should exist based on natural birth probabilities against the number that actually exist, the researchers have developed a new way to measure the intensity of son preference. This approach reveals not just a statistical skew, but the cumulative effect of reproductive decisions made by millions of families.
The researchers analyzed data from the National Family Health Survey, a massive nationwide survey conducted between 2019 and 2021, which included information from nearly half a million women. They looked at the family histories of these women to see how many had only daughters. Under natural conditions, where the sex of a child is determined without interference, the probability of having a family with only girls drops as the number of children increases, but it remains a predictable mathematical reality. The study found that in India, the actual number of girl-only families is consistently and significantly lower than this natural expectation. This deficit is not random; it is a direct result of parents continuing to have children until a son is born or using medical technology to select the sex of the fetus.
The study maps this deficit across the country, revealing a clear geographical divide. The shortage of girl-only families is most severe in the northern and northwestern states, such as Haryana, Rajasthan, and Punjab. In Haryana, for instance, the study found that the proportion of families with only daughters is missing by nearly 73 percent compared to what would be expected naturally. In contrast, the deficit is much smaller in the southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the number of girl-only families is much closer to the natural expectation. This regional pattern aligns with what is already known about cultural differences in India, where patriarchal traditions and the need for sons to perform religious rites or support parents in old age are stronger in the north.
The researchers also examined how this phenomenon varies across different social groups. They found that the deficit of girl-only families exists across all religions, castes, and education levels, but its intensity varies. The discrepancy is particularly pronounced among women with no education and primary education. In contrast, women with higher education exhibit distributions that more closely approximate the theoretical benchmark, suggesting that educational attainment is associated with a weaker manifestation of son preference. Interestingly, the study suggests that son preference is slowly weakening over time. Younger women show a smaller deficit of girl-only families compared to older women, indicating that as new generations grow up, the pressure to have a son may be easing, though it has not disappeared.
This new indicator offers a powerful tool for understanding the depth of gender bias. Unlike surveys that ask people what they think they want, which can be influenced by what is socially acceptable to say, this measure looks at what families actually do. It captures the real-world outcome of reproductive choices. The study concludes that the scarcity of girl-only families is a direct demographic signature of son preference. As long as this preference persists, families will continue to manipulate their size and composition to ensure they have a son. The researchers suggest that this scarcity is not just a statistic; it is a barrier to social change. When few families experience life with only daughters, the cultural belief that sons are essential for survival and support remains unchallenged. Until the number of girl-only families rises to match natural expectations, the deep-rooted norms that favor sons will likely continue to shape the future of Indian families.
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