Earthquake-Driven Urban Reconfiguration and Land Use Change: Scenario-Based ANN– Markov Modelling of Post-Disaster Growth

When a city faces a massive earthquake, the immediate tragedy is measured in lost lives and collapsed buildings. But long after the rubble is cleared, the disaster leaves a permanent mark on the landscape itself. This is the story of how a city rebuilds, not just by repairing what was broken, but by changing its very shape. In the field of urban planning and geography, scientists study how land use—the way we divide the earth into farms, forests, and neighborhoods—shifts over time. They use tools like satellite images to see these changes from above and computer models to guess where a city might grow next. Usually, cities grow upward, stacking apartments and offices to save space. However, when a disaster strikes, the rules often change. Survivors and planners may decide that spreading out is safer than building high, leading to a different kind of growth that swallows up the fields and pastures surrounding the city. Understanding this shift is crucial because it determines whether a city will be safe and sustainable for the next generation, or if it will simply repeat the mistakes that led to the disaster.

A team of researchers set out to understand exactly how the devastating earthquakes of February 6, 2023, reshaped the city of Malatya in eastern Turkey. Malatya, a region famous for its apricot orchards and rolling plains, was hit hard by the tremors, even though the epicenter was some distance away. The city lost thousands of homes, and the destruction forced a complete rethink of how the city should expand. To figure out what happened and what might happen next, the scientists looked at satellite photos of the area taken in 1986, 2022, and 2025. They used advanced computer programs, specifically a type of artificial intelligence that learns from patterns, to analyze how the land had changed over the decades. They then created two different future scenarios: one where the earthquake never happened, and another where the city rebuilt according to the new, safer rules adopted after the disaster.

Before the earthquake, the city was already growing, but it was following a familiar path. In 1986, the area was dominated by dry pastures, which covered about 70 percent of the land. By 2022, just before the disaster, the city had expanded significantly, with built-up areas like houses and roads taking up nearly 17 percent of the land. The most dramatic change, however, was in the agricultural sector. The region's famous apricot orchards and other farm lands had grown massively, covering over 41 percent of the area by 2022, driven by the high value of dried apricots in global markets. The city was densifying, but it was still surrounded by a rich tapestry of green fields and pastures.

The earthquake changed everything. In the year following the disaster, the pattern of growth shifted abruptly. The researchers found that the city began to spread outward horizontally rather than building upward. This was a direct result of new safety laws that restricted how tall buildings could be in risky zones. Instead of stacking apartments, the city began to consume the land around it. By 2025, the area covered by buildings and roads had jumped to over 26 percent. This rapid expansion came at a steep cost to the land. The dry pastures, which had already shrunk significantly over the decades, were reduced to just 6 percent of the total area. The agricultural lands and orchards also began to retreat, squeezed out by the new, sprawling neighborhoods.

To see what the future holds, the team ran their computer models forward to the years 2050 and 2070. They compared two possible worlds. In the first scenario, where the earthquake never occurred, the city would have continued its previous trend. The models suggest that by 2070, the built-up area would have reached about 26 percent, with the city growing more vertically and preserving more of the surrounding farmland. In the second scenario, which reflects the reality of the post-earthquake reconstruction, the city is projected to grow much faster and much wider. By 2070, the built-up area is expected to cover nearly 37 percent of the land. This means that in a world shaped by the disaster, the city will have swallowed up a vast amount of the agricultural land and pastures that once defined the region.

The study highlights that the driving force behind this change is simply distance from the city center. The further a piece of land is from the urban core, the more likely it is to be converted into a new neighborhood in the post-disaster era. The researchers found that the shift from vertical to horizontal growth is not just a temporary reaction to the rubble; it is a fundamental reconfiguration of the city's identity. The new zoning laws, designed to keep people safe from future quakes, are inadvertently pushing the city to spread out over the very fields that feed it. This creates a difficult paradox: the measures taken to save lives today are consuming the land that supports the local economy and ecology.

The researchers are careful to note that these future maps are simulations based on current trends and laws. They represent a likely path, not a guaranteed destiny. The data used for the most recent year comes from a time when the city was still in the midst of emergency recovery, so some of the new construction might be temporary. However, the trend is clear. The earthquake acted as a powerful catalyst, forcing the city to abandon its old growth patterns and adopt a new, sprawling one. If these trends continue, the vibrant apricot orchards and pastures that once surrounded Malatya will be largely gone, replaced by a low-rise urban landscape that stretches far into the plains. The study serves as a stark reminder that when a city rebuilds after a disaster, it does not just return to how it was; it becomes something new, with consequences that will shape the land for decades to come.