Climate Risk Analysis for Sustainable Water Resource Planning in Syria

Water is the foundation of life, but in many parts of the world, the systems that deliver it are under siege from two distinct forces. One is the changing climate, which brings hotter temperatures, unpredictable rains, and more frequent droughts. The other is the aftermath of human conflict, which leaves behind broken pipes, damaged treatment plants, and communities that have lost their ability to maintain what remains. When these two forces collide, the result is a crisis that goes far beyond a simple shortage of water; it becomes a threat to public health, economic stability, and the very possibility of recovery. This is the reality facing Syria, a nation where the scars of a long civil war have left its water infrastructure fragile, just as the planet around it grows warmer and drier. Scientists have long understood that climate change acts as a risk multiplier, meaning it does not just add a new problem to an existing one, but instead makes every existing problem worse. In a place where the water system is already damaged, a hotter, drier climate does not just reduce the water supply; it pushes a broken system past the point of failure.

A new study brings this complex interaction into sharp focus for Syria. Researchers from institutions in Sweden, Iraq, the United States, and Jordan set out to understand exactly how climate change is threatening the country's water, sanitation, and hygiene services. They did not look at the weather or the war in isolation. Instead, they used a structured approach to map out how climate dangers, the physical exposure of damaged infrastructure, and the deep social vulnerabilities of the population all fit together. Their goal was to create a clear picture of the risks facing millions of people and to identify how Syria can rebuild its water systems in a way that can withstand the climate of the future, rather than simply restoring the fragile systems of the past.

The researchers began by looking at the hard data of the climate itself. They found that Syria is warming up faster than the global average. Between 1991 and 2020, the country's average temperature rose by nearly three-quarters of a degree Celsius every decade. This warming is not just a number on a chart; it means the air is holding more heat, which pulls moisture out of the soil and dries out rivers and lakes. At the same time, the rain is becoming scarcer and more erratic. Since 1990, the amount of rain falling each year has dropped by about twelve percent every decade. When it does rain, it often comes in intense, short bursts that cause flash floods rather than soaking into the ground to replenish underground water supplies. The study projects that if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current high path, the average temperature in Syria could rise by nearly six degrees Celsius by the end of this century. By that time, the number of days each year when the heat index exceeds thirty-five degrees Celsius could jump from about one hundred days to nearly one hundred and sixty.

These climatic shifts are hitting a water system that is already in a state of collapse. The civil war that raged for over a decade destroyed or severely damaged between sixty and seventy percent of the country's water and sanitation infrastructure. Treatment plants, pumping stations, and distribution networks were left in ruins, and the economic collapse that followed meant there was little money to fix them. Today, millions of people are displaced, living in camps or crowded cities where the water supply is unreliable. The study highlights that in 2022, these conditions culminated in a catastrophic outbreak of cholera, a waterborne disease, which sickened thousands. The researchers found that the combination of a warming climate and a broken water system has created a perfect storm. The heat increases the demand for water while simultaneously drying up the sources, and the damaged infrastructure cannot handle the stress of extreme weather events like floods or the strain of a growing population.

To understand the full scope of the danger, the team looked at three specific layers of risk. First, they identified the climate hazards, such as droughts, extreme heat, and floods. Second, they assessed exposure, determining which people and which pieces of infrastructure are in the path of these hazards. They found that critical water facilities in major cities and river basins are highly exposed, and that the millions of internally displaced people are particularly vulnerable because they often rely on unsafe water sources. Third, they evaluated vulnerability, which is the ability of a system to cope with these shocks. Here, the study found that Syria's ability to adapt is severely limited by six different factors: the physical damage to pipes and pumps, the poverty and displacement of the people, the lack of money to operate and maintain systems, the degradation of the environment, the loss of skilled engineers and technicians, and the fragmentation of government authority.

The study concludes that the most pressing threats are prolonged droughts and extreme heat, which are slowly but surely draining the country's water reserves. While floods and storms pose a severe risk of immediate damage to infrastructure, the slow creep of drought is the dominant danger that threatens to make water scarcity permanent. The researchers emphasize that simply fixing the broken pipes will not be enough. If new infrastructure is built without considering the hotter, drier climate of the future, it will likely fail again. The path forward requires a complete shift in strategy. The study recommends that Syria rebuild its water systems with climate resilience at the core. This means installing solar-powered treatment systems that do not rely on unstable fuel supplies, creating better networks to monitor groundwater, and establishing early warning systems for droughts and floods. It also requires rebuilding the human capacity of the country by training a new generation of engineers and technicians, and strengthening the institutions that manage water resources.

The authors argue that the current moment of post-conflict recovery offers a unique window of opportunity. Instead of rushing to rebuild the same vulnerable systems that existed before the war, decision-makers have the chance to embed climate adaptation into every stage of reconstruction. This approach would not only restore access to safe drinking water but would also create a system that is durable enough to withstand the climate challenges of the coming decades. The framework used in this study, which links climate hazards with infrastructure and social vulnerability, is designed to be a tool that can be used in other conflict-ridden and water-scarce regions around the world. By treating climate change not as a separate issue but as a central factor in recovery planning, Syria and similar nations can move from emergency response toward a future of long-term water security. The findings serve as a stark reminder that in a warming world, rebuilding without adaptation is not just a missed opportunity; it is a recipe for repeating the cycle of crisis.