The State of Traditional Food Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa:  Estimating the number of traditional food markets in Sub-Saharan Africa: now and into the future

Imagine a city as a giant, living organism. Just like your body needs a steady flow of blood to keep your heart beating and your muscles moving, a city needs a steady flow of food to keep its people alive and happy. In many parts of the world, this "blood" flows through massive, high-tech veins like supermarkets and shopping malls. But in Sub-Saharan Africa, the lifeblood of the city often flows through something much more colorful, chaotic, and ancient: traditional food markets. These aren't just places to buy a tomato; they are the bustling, noisy, vibrant heartbeats of the city where neighbors meet, farmers sell their harvest, and families find their next meal.

But here is the big question: As these African cities grow faster than almost anywhere else on Earth, what happens to these markets? Will they be squeezed out by shiny new supermarkets, or will they grow stronger to feed the millions of new people moving in? This paper dives into that mystery. It treats the city's food system like a puzzle, trying to count the missing pieces (the markets) and predict how many more pieces will be needed in the future. The authors aren't just guessing; they are trying to figure out if the city is building enough "food bridges" to connect rural farmers to urban families, or if the bridges are about to collapse under the weight of a growing population.

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The Great Market Count: What's the Deal?

So, what did the researchers actually do? They went on a massive scavenger hunt across six different cities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Arusha, Dar es Salaam, Kisumu, Lusaka, Lilongwe, and Windhoek. Over three years, they visited 358 traditional food markets. Think of it like taking a snapshot of a tiny slice of a giant pizza to guess how many slices are on the whole pie.

They found that right now, in 2025, there are roughly 27,800 of these traditional food markets across the entire region. That's a lot of markets! But here is the kicker: they are currently serving about 890 million people living in cities. If you do the math, that means there is roughly one market for every 31,935 people.

The paper suggests this is a bit like trying to serve a stadium full of fans with only a few snack stands. It's not quite enough. The researchers compared their findings to the "rulebook" that many city planners actually use (even if they don't always follow it). In places like Mexico or Uganda, the rule of thumb is that you should have one neighborhood market for every 5,000 people. If Sub-Saharan African cities followed their own rules, they would need 178,000 markets right now. Instead, they have less than a sixth of that number.

The Future: Five Ways the Story Could Unfold

The paper doesn't just count the markets today; it looks into a crystal ball to see what might happen over the next 25 years, up to 2050. By then, the urban population is expected to swell to 1.62 billion people. The authors created five different "storylines" or scenarios to show how the future could play out, depending on what city leaders decide to do.

1. Business as Usual (The "Same Old Song" Scenario):
   If nothing changes and cities just build more markets at the same slow pace as before, the ratio stays the same. By 2050, there would be about 50,728 markets. It's like adding one new seat to a bus for every new passenger who gets on; the bus never gets more crowded, but it also never gets more comfortable.

2. Weak Support (The "Slow Fade" Scenario):
   Imagine city leaders give markets a little bit of help, but big supermarkets (like Shoprite or Walmart) start taking over more of the food sales. The markets don't disappear, but they get squeezed. The number of markets per person drops by 25%. By 2050, there would be only 38,045 markets. It's like a garden where the weeds are growing faster than the flowers.

3. Market Collapse (The "Supermarket Takeover" Scenario):
   This is the scary one. If city leaders stop caring about markets and let big chains take over completely, the number of traditional markets could drop by half. By 2050, we might see only 25,364 markets. This would look a lot like the food systems in North America, where big stores dominate and small local stalls vanish. The paper argues this would be a disaster for jobs and for poor families who rely on these markets for cheap, fresh food.

4. Market Cities (The "Super Growth" Scenario):
   What if cities decided to treat markets like gold? If they invested heavily in upgrading old markets and building new ones, the number of markets could actually increase by 25% relative to the population. By 2050, there would be 63,410 markets. This scenario looks like the food systems in China, where markets are modern, clean, and everywhere.

5. Policy Adherence (The "Dream Team" Scenario):
   This is the big one. If cities finally followed their own planning rules and built one market for every 5,000 people, the numbers would explode. To catch up with the backlog and the new population, they would need to build 324,000 markets by 2050. That means building a brand new market every single day for 25 years straight! It's a massive challenge, but the paper suggests this is the only way to truly feed everyone properly.

The Real-World Hurdles

The paper is very clear: we aren't just talking about building new buildings. Many of the existing 27,800 markets are in bad shape. The researchers found that in the markets they visited, only 26.4% had fully working water systems. Imagine trying to wash your hands or clean your vegetables with a broken tap—that's the reality for many traders.

The authors argue that the biggest problem isn't a lack of ideas, but a lack of money and a lack of trust. City governments often take the money collected from market fees and use it for other things, instead of fixing the market's roof or plumbing. It's like a landlord who collects rent but never fixes the leaky faucet. The paper suggests that if cities could keep the money they earn from markets and use it to fix those markets, they could start a cycle of improvement.

Why Should You Care?

This isn't just about counting stalls. It's about who gets to eat, who gets a job, and what the city looks like in 2050. Traditional markets are where millions of small farmers sell their food and where millions of city dwellers get their cheapest, freshest meals. If these markets disappear, it's not just the traders who lose their jobs; it's the families who can no longer afford to eat well.

The paper concludes that the future of Africa's food system depends on a choice. City leaders can choose the easy path of letting supermarkets take over, which might look "modern" but could leave many people behind. Or, they can choose the hard path of building and fixing thousands of traditional markets, creating a food system that is fair, local, and ready for the future. The math says we need to build a new market almost every day to get there, but the paper suggests that if we start small, fix what we have, and keep the money flowing back into the markets, it's possible. The future of the city's dinner table is being written right now.