System dynamics analysis of synergistic development between tourism and resident wellbeing in Zhejiang Province of China

In the modern world, the success of a region is often measured by the money it makes. But for the people who live there, success looks different. It looks like a safe neighborhood, a clean park, a job that pays enough to feed a family, and a sense of belonging to a community. When a place becomes a destination for travelers, these two ideas—the economic engine of tourism and the daily happiness of the locals—often collide. Sometimes they help each other; sometimes they fight. This tension is the heart of a new study focused on Zhejiang Province in China, a region famous for its rolling hills, ancient villages, and rapid economic growth. Researchers wanted to understand how the boom in tourism actually changes the lives of the people who call these places home. They were not just looking at bank accounts; they were looking at the full picture of human wellbeing, which includes physical safety, social connections, and spiritual satisfaction. The goal was to see if the industry could grow without leaving the residents behind, and to find a way to make sure that when the tourism numbers go up, the happiness of the locals goes up with them.

To answer this, a team of researchers from Huzhou Vocational & Technical College and Hangzhou Dianzi University turned to a method called system dynamics. Imagine the tourism industry and the lives of residents not as separate lists of facts, but as a complex machine with many moving parts. If you push one lever, like building a new hotel, it might pull a chain that raises local incomes but also pushes up housing prices. If you pull another, like protecting a forest, it might slow down construction but improve the air quality. The researchers built a computer simulation of this machine using real data from 2015 to 2023. They fed the model information about everything from the number of travel agencies and hotel beds to the amount of money people spent on culture and the quality of the local environment. They also tracked how the province's residents felt about their lives, measuring their income security, their living conditions, and their access to education and the arts. By running this simulation, they could watch how these different parts of the system reacted to each other over time, especially during the massive disruption caused by the global pandemic.

The story the data told was one of two different rhythms. On one side, the wellbeing of the residents in Zhejiang showed a steady, resilient climb. From 2015 to 2023, the overall score for how well people were doing more than tripled, rising from a low base of 0.04 to 0.18. Even when the pandemic hit in 2020, causing a temporary pause, the residents' quality of life recovered and continued its upward path. This suggests that the social safety nets and economic foundations of the province were strong enough to protect people's daily lives. On the other side, the tourism industry itself was far more volatile. It grew quickly until 2019, then crashed hard when travel stopped, dropping by 80 percent in a single year. It began to recover slowly afterward, but by 2023, it had only reached 40 percent of its pre-pandemic peak. The two curves were moving in the same general direction, but they were not moving in step. The industry was fragile and reactive to outside shocks, while the residents' lives were more stable.

When the researchers looked at how these two systems interacted, they found a relationship that was active but not yet harmonious. For most of the study period, the two systems were in what is called an "antagonistic stage." This means they were influencing each other strongly, but not necessarily in a way that helped both sides grow together. The intensity of their interaction was high, but the efficiency of that cooperation was low. The tourism industry was growing, and people were getting better off, but the two were not fully supporting each other yet. The connection was there, but it was not yet a perfect partnership. The study suggests that simply having tourism in a region does not automatically guarantee that the locals will be happier; the relationship needs to be carefully managed to turn that interaction into a true synergy.

To figure out how to fix this, the team ran five different scenarios on their computer model, essentially asking, "What happens if we change the rules?" The first scenario was a "natural change" model, where nothing was forced to change, and the system just followed its own path. This showed steady growth but left the cultural and spiritual side of life vulnerable to shocks. The second scenario focused on building more tourism businesses, like hotels and travel agencies. This made the industry grow faster, but it also showed a warning sign: if you push too hard on building, the living environment can start to suffer, and the benefits to the locals can stall. The third scenario focused on the market, trying to bring in more tourists and spending. This boosted the economy, but it made the whole system more unstable, with wilder swings in both money and environmental quality. The fourth scenario focused on general social development, like increasing what people spend on goods. This helped, but it didn't improve the specific parts of life that matter most to residents' happiness as much as other methods.

The final scenario, which the researchers identified as the best path forward, was a "total factor" approach. Instead of pushing just one button, this model strengthened everything at once: the number of tourist attractions, the income from tourism, and the general spending power of society. In this simulation, the tourism industry grew strongly, but more importantly, the residents' wellbeing grew in a balanced and sustainable way. The living environment remained healthy, and the cultural life of the community flourished. This approach avoided the pitfalls of the other models. It didn't let the environment get crushed by too many hotels, and it didn't let the economy swing wildly with every change in the market. It showed that the most effective way to help both the industry and the people is to develop them together, in a coordinated way.

The study concludes that for Zhejiang, and potentially for other places facing similar challenges, the future lies in this kind of balanced, multi-faceted strategy. The pandemic proved that relying on a single engine, like tourism alone, is risky. The residents' wellbeing is the foundation, and the industry must be built to support it, not just extract from it. The researchers suggest that local leaders should not just look at how many tourists visit, but at how those visits affect the air, the housing, the local culture, and the income of the families in the village. By tracking these different factors together and adjusting policies to keep them in balance, a region can ensure that the growth of tourism translates directly into a better life for everyone who lives there. The path forward is not about choosing between the economy and the people, but about weaving them together so that when one rises, the other rises with it.