Renters are Predicted to be More Mobile than Homeowners Following Flooding: The Role of Housing Tenure in Environmental Migration Research

When a flood recedes, the water leaves behind a landscape of mud and damage, but it also leaves behind a difficult question for the people who survived: do they stay and rebuild, or do they leave? For decades, scientists studying how people move after disasters have focused on who is poor, who is young, or who belongs to a specific racial group to predict who will migrate. These factors are undeniably important, as disasters often hit the most vulnerable communities the hardest. However, there is another layer to this story that has been largely overlooked: whether a person owns their home or rents it. This distinction is not just about a lease or a deed; it represents a fundamental difference in how people experience a disaster, how much money they have to recover, and whether they even have the legal right to decide what happens to their house afterward. As climate change makes flooding more frequent and severe across the United States, understanding these differences is no longer just an academic exercise. It is a matter of planning for a future where millions of people may need to move, and ensuring that the policies designed to help them do not accidentally leave the most vulnerable behind.

A new study by Kathryn Foster at Cornell University brings this missing piece into focus, using a massive collection of data spanning from 2009 to 2023 to track the movements of thousands of American households. The researcher combined information about where people lived and their financial situations with detailed records of flood events, storm tracks, and insurance policies. By looking at whether people moved out of their specific zip code area after a flood, the study reveals a clear and consistent pattern: renters are significantly more likely to leave their homes after a flood than homeowners are. While it might seem intuitive that those with the least money would be the most likely to stay because they cannot afford to move, the data shows the opposite is true for renters. When a flood hits, renters tend to move away, whereas homeowners tend to stay put, even when their properties are damaged.

The study found that this difference is not simply a matter of income or race, though those factors play a role. Renters, who often have fewer financial resources and less control over their housing, appear to have a higher rate of mobility. This might seem counterintuitive, but the researchers suggest it is because renters often lack the deep social ties or the financial assets that anchor people to a specific place. Furthermore, the physical reality of renting often means that once a flood damages a rental unit, the landlord may choose not to repair it, or the tenant may be evicted, forcing a move. In contrast, homeowners, who often view their house as their largest financial asset, are more likely to attempt to stay and rebuild, even if it is difficult. The data shows that for homeowners, poverty acts as a powerful anchor; when a low-income homeowner's house is flooded, they are even more likely to stay than their wealthier neighbors, likely because they simply cannot afford the cost of moving and starting over elsewhere.

The research also peels back the layers of race and income to see how they interact with housing status. For example, the study found that Black renters in flooded areas were more likely to move than White homeowners, a pattern that aligns with the idea that Black renters often face additional pressures, such as eviction or a lack of resources to repair, that force them to leave. Conversely, Hispanic renters in flooded areas were found to be more likely to stay than their counterparts who did not experience a flood, suggesting that community ties or other factors might keep them in place despite the damage. For homeowners of all races, the presence of a flood made them more likely to stay, but this effect was strongest among those with lower incomes. This suggests that while money helps people move, a lack of money can trap homeowners in place, unable to afford the transition to a new home.

What makes these findings particularly urgent is the current state of the American housing market. The gap between renters and homeowners has widened significantly over the last few decades, with renters facing rising costs and shrinking security. The study highlights that federal disaster aid, such as flood insurance and recovery loans, is often structured in a way that favors homeowners. Because these programs are tied to property ownership, renters are frequently left without the same safety net, making their recovery more precarious. The research argues that if climate adaptation policies continue to ignore the specific vulnerabilities of renters, they risk deepening existing inequalities. By treating all disaster survivors the same, regardless of whether they own or rent, policymakers may fail to protect those who are most at risk of being displaced permanently.

Ultimately, this study does not just tell us who moves and who stays; it tells us that the ability to move after a disaster is not just a matter of personal choice, but is heavily shaped by the type of housing a person occupies. The findings suggest that as floods become more common, the divide between renters and homeowners will become a central factor in how communities recover. For renters, the path after a flood often leads away from their neighborhood, while for homeowners, the path often leads back to the same spot, even if it is damaged. Recognizing this reality is the first step toward creating fairer recovery plans that ensure everyone, regardless of their housing status, has a real chance to rebuild their lives.