Sustaining Public-Sector Capability as the Workforce Ages: Succession Exposure Across Federal, State, and Local Government in the United States
Utilizing 2024 American Community Survey data, this study reveals that the U.S. public-sector workforce is significantly older and more credentialed than its private-sector counterpart, facing a critical succession crisis with a thinner early-career pipeline and concentrated risks in management that necessitate shifting monitoring focus from headcount to composition and succession exposure.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
Every organization relies on the people who work within it, but counting those people is often the only way leaders know how strong their team is. In government, this usually means looking at a simple number: how many employees are on the payroll. This count is easy to track and easy to compare from year to year, yet it tells a story that is dangerously incomplete. A workforce of one hundred people could be a team of eager, young trainees just starting their careers, or it could be a group of seasoned experts nearing the end of their time. The value each person brings is not the same; losing a specialist with decades of experience and advanced training is far more damaging to an organization than losing someone who can be replaced quickly. As the population ages, this distinction becomes critical. The question is no longer just how many workers exist, but whether the specific skills and experience they hold can be sustained as the oldest members of the workforce prepare to leave.
A new study by independent researcher Ali Akram tackles this problem by looking beyond the simple headcount to examine the actual makeup of the American public workforce. The research focuses on five large and diverse states—California, Florida, Minnesota, New York, and Texas—to compare government employees with those in the private sector. By analyzing detailed records from the 2024 American Community Survey, the study reveals that the government workforce is not just older, but significantly more experienced and educated than its private-sector counterpart. This difference creates a unique challenge: as the senior cohort retires, the government faces a much larger wave of departures from highly skilled workers, with far fewer young, credentialed workers waiting in the wings to take their places.
The data paints a clear picture of an aging system. In the five states examined, nearly one in four government employees is fifty-five years old or older, compared to roughly one in five in the private sector. This gap is even more striking when looking at education. More than half of government workers hold a bachelor's degree or higher, while less than two-fifths of private-sector workers have the same level of education. This combination of age and advanced credentials means that the government is losing a concentration of expertise that is difficult to rebuild. The study introduces a way to measure this risk by comparing the number of older workers to the number of younger ones. In the private sector, there are about two young workers for every older one. In the government, that balance is nearly even, with almost one older worker for every younger one. In states like Florida and New York, the situation is even more precarious, with more older workers than young ones ready to succeed them.
What makes this finding particularly urgent is that it is not simply a result of the types of jobs the government hires for. Critics might argue that government jobs are just different, requiring older, more educated people, while the private sector employs many young people in service roles. However, the study tested this by looking at specific job categories, such as management, healthcare, and engineering. Even within the same types of jobs, government workers were older and more educated than their private-sector peers. This confirms that the aging trend is a property of public employment itself, not just a reflection of the jobs available. The risk is not spread evenly across all government roles; it is heavily concentrated in management and other highly skilled professions. In these areas, the number of workers approaching retirement is significantly larger than the number of young workers entering the field, creating a gap that threatens the continuity of essential services.
The researchers also looked ahead to see what this current age structure implies for the next decade. By projecting how the current workforce will age, they found that nearly nineteen percent of government employees will reach traditional retirement age within ten years. In the private sector, that number is about fifteen percent. More importantly, the government has a much thinner pipeline of young workers to absorb this loss. While the private sector has a robust supply of young talent ready to step up, the government's early-career workforce is too small to replace the experienced experts who are leaving. This is not a prediction of exactly who will retire, but a measure of the exposure created by the current makeup of the workforce. If the government does not actively recruit and train new talent, it faces a future where the experience and knowledge held by its senior staff will vanish faster than it can be replaced.
The study concludes that the way we monitor the health of the public workforce needs to change. Relying on a simple count of employees hides the real story of who those employees are and what they bring to the table. Instead, leaders and policymakers should focus on the composition of the workforce: the balance between older and younger workers, the level of education they hold, and the specific jobs where the risk of losing expertise is highest. These measures are not difficult to calculate and can be derived from data that is already publicly available. By shifting the focus from how many people are working to who is working, governments can better understand the true state of their capabilities and take steps to ensure that the experience of their senior staff is not lost when they depart. The challenge is real, but the tools to understand and address it are already at hand.
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