Green Economy Indicators for Prioritizing Tourism Sites in a World Natural Heritage: An Integrated Fuzzy AHP - Fuzzy TOPSIS Assessment of the Cat Ba Archipelago (Vietnam)

In the world of development, there is a growing recognition that economic progress and environmental health are not enemies, but partners. This idea, known as the green economy, suggests that we can improve human well-being and create jobs while simultaneously protecting the natural world and ensuring that the benefits of growth are shared fairly. It moves beyond simply cleaning up pollution to fundamentally rethink how we use resources, manage our landscapes, and support local communities. For places that rely on tourism, this balance is critical. A destination that is beautiful but polluted, or one that brings in money but leaves the local residents behind, is not truly sustainable. The challenge for planners is knowing exactly where to focus their efforts: which specific villages or sites should receive investment to become models of this green future, and which ones need more time to build the necessary foundations before they can welcome visitors?

This question lies at the heart of a new study focused on the Cat Ba Archipelago in Vietnam, a stunning collection of 366 limestone islands that was recently designated as part of a World Natural Heritage site. The area is a treasure trove of biodiversity, home to rare species and unique ecosystems, yet it faces the pressures of rapid tourism growth. The researchers, a team of experts from Vietnamese universities and research institutes, set out to solve a practical problem: with limited money and resources, how do decision-makers choose which of the many small communities on the islands should be prioritized for green tourism development? They did not rely on a single opinion or a simple checklist. Instead, they developed a structured way to weigh complex factors, bringing together the voices of local leaders, business owners, and scholars to create a clear roadmap for the future.

The team selected ten specific hamlets across the archipelago to evaluate. These sites were chosen to represent a wide range of conditions: some are deep inside protected national parks, others are near busy transport hubs, and some are still quite isolated. To judge them, the researchers defined ten key criteria that capture the essence of a green economy. These included how well natural resources like forests and coral reefs are managed, whether the rules for development are clear and enforced, how fairly the income from tourism is shared among residents, and whether the community has the support and skills to participate in planning. The researchers gathered a panel of ten decision-makers, including village leaders and local business owners, to assess these ten sites against the ten criteria.

To make sense of these many opinions and complex trade-offs, the team used a method that allows for uncertainty and nuance. In the real world, experts often struggle to give exact numbers when comparing things like "fairness" or "environmental protection." They might say one factor is "very important" while another is "moderately important." The researchers translated these human judgments into a mathematical framework that could handle such vague language without losing precision. First, they determined which of the ten criteria mattered most. The result was clear: the management of natural capital—protecting the forests, mangroves, and marine life that make the islands special—was the single most important factor. This was followed closely by the existence of clear policy guidelines and the fair distribution of benefits. Interestingly, while innovation and new technologies were considered, they were ranked as less critical than the fundamental need to protect the environment and ensure that the rules are followed.

Once the importance of each factor was established, the team evaluated the ten hamlets to see which ones were performing best overall. The analysis revealed a distinct pattern. The hamlets in Viet Hai and Xuan Dam emerged as the top performers. These communities showed the strongest alignment with green economy goals, largely because they already have a strong connection between their livelihoods and the protection of their natural surroundings. However, the researchers were careful to clarify what this high ranking actually means. Being at the top of the list does not mean these places should immediately open their doors to a flood of new tourists. On the contrary, because these sites are so close to the ideal of a green economy, they require the most careful management to prevent them from being overwhelmed. The priority for Viet Hai and Xuan Dam is to consolidate their current advantages, strictly control visitor numbers, and ensure that the money earned stays within the local community.

The other sites fell into different categories, each requiring a different approach. Two hamlets in Phu Long showed promise but needed improvements in infrastructure and environmental safeguards before they could fully transition to green tourism. Two others in Tran Chau needed stronger coordination between businesses and local authorities, along with better waste management systems. Finally, the two hamlets in Hien Hao ranked lowest. The study suggests that these areas are not yet ready for major tourism promotion. Instead of rushing to attract visitors, the priority there should be to fix basic environmental services, build local capacity, and conduct careful assessments to ensure that any future development does not harm the fragile ecosystem.

The researchers tested the reliability of their findings by running the analysis multiple times with different assumptions about how important each factor was. The results remained remarkably stable; the same four sites consistently stayed at the top, and the same two remained at the bottom. This stability gives decision-makers confidence that the ranking is not a fluke but a robust reflection of the current situation. The study concludes that there is no single "one-size-fits-all" solution for the Cat Ba Archipelago. Instead, a differentiated strategy is needed. Some places need to be protected and managed tightly, others need to be prepared with better infrastructure, and some need to wait until their environmental foundations are secure. By using this integrated approach, planners can move beyond guesswork and make transparent, evidence-based decisions that protect the World Natural Heritage status of the islands while ensuring that the local communities thrive.