First Nationwide Assessment of Threatened Ecosystems in Bolivia: Status, Threats, and Conservation Priorities

Imagine a country where the land itself is a living library, holding the stories of millions of years of evolution in its forests, mountains, and wetlands. Bolivia is one such place, a vast territory in the heart of South America where the Andes mountains plunge into tropical lowlands, creating a dizzying array of climates and habitats. In this landscape, ecosystems are not just collections of trees or animals; they are complex, functioning systems where living things interact with the soil, water, and air to create a stable environment. When these systems are healthy, they provide clean water, stable climates, and homes for countless species. But when they are pushed too far by human activity or climate shifts, they can degrade, lose their ability to function, and eventually collapse into something entirely different, often unable to support the life they once did. Understanding which of these vital systems are on the brink of collapse is the first step in saving them, a task that requires looking at the land not just as a map of resources, but as a set of fragile, interconnected engines that keep the planet running.

For the first time, scientists have taken a comprehensive look at the health of every major ecosystem type across all of Bolivia. This massive assessment, the first of its kind for the nation, examined 141 distinct types of natural environments, ranging from the high-altitude grasslands of the Andes to the flooded forests of the Amazon and the dry shrublands of the Chaco. The researchers applied a rigorous global standard used to measure the risk of ecosystem collapse, similar to how doctors assess the health of a patient by checking vital signs. They looked at three main warning signs: how much the area of each ecosystem has shrunk over the last 50 years and since the 1700s; how small and fragmented the remaining patches have become; and how much the climate conditions, such as rainfall and temperature, have changed to stress these environments. By combining satellite data from the last half-century with historical records and climate measurements from weather stations, the team built a detailed picture of where nature is holding on and where it is slipping away.

The results reveal a landscape under significant pressure. Out of the 141 ecosystem types assessed, more than half are considered threatened. Specifically, 15 types are classified as critically endangered, meaning they face an extremely high risk of total collapse in the near future. Another 22 are endangered, and 39 are vulnerable. These threatened ecosystems are not spread evenly across the country; they are concentrated in specific groups. The most severe losses have occurred in the wetlands, peat bogs, and high-altitude grasslands, where the area of natural habitat has shrunk dramatically. In the lowlands, tropical dry forests and transitional woodlands are also showing alarming rates of decline. While some ecosystems, like certain permanent rivers and large lakes, remain relatively stable, the overall picture is one of rapid change. The study found that the area of natural land converted to human use, such as farms and cities, grew from 1.8 million hectares in 1973 to 13 million hectares by 2023. This expansion has been driven largely by livestock farming and mechanized agriculture, which together account for the vast majority of deforestation in the lowlands.

What makes this assessment particularly urgent is that many of the most threatened ecosystems are not protected by law. Although Bolivia has a network of protected areas covering about a third of its territory, this safety net is missing the most vulnerable spots. The study found that nearly 70 percent of the critically endangered ecosystems are completely outside the formal protection system. This includes unique habitats like the bamboo forests of the southwestern Amazon, the flooded palm groves of the Chiquitania, and the high-altitude shrublands of the Andes. Even within the protected areas, management is often insufficient to stop the degradation caused by overgrazing, fires, and climate change. The researchers also noted that the threats are not uniform; some areas are collapsing because they are being cut down, while others are suffering because the climate is becoming too hot or too dry for them to survive. For instance, the warming trend in the Andes is causing glaciers to retreat, which threatens the water supply for downstream ecosystems, while increased temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are stressing the dry forests and savannas.

The study also highlights that looking at just one factor, like how much land has been lost, is not enough to understand the full risk. By analyzing the data from multiple angles, the researchers discovered that each warning sign provides unique information. An ecosystem might still be large in area but so fragmented that it cannot recover from a fire, or it might be intact but facing a climate shift that makes its current form impossible to sustain. This multi-dimensional view shows that no single metric can tell the whole story. The findings serve as a critical baseline for the country to meet its international commitments to protect nature, specifically the global goal to conserve at least 30 percent of the planet's land by 2030. The authors argue that to truly protect Bolivia's biodiversity, the country must expand its protected areas to include these missing, threatened ecosystems and invest in restoring the ones that have already been damaged. Without these targeted actions, the risk of these unique environments collapsing and losing their ability to support life will continue to rise, with consequences that extend far beyond the borders of the nation.