Climate Risk Exposure of Educational Facilities in Kenya: A National Multi-Hazard Spatial Assessment Using the IPCC AR6 Framework

Imagine a school not just as a building with desks and blackboards, but as a living part of a landscape that is changing. In many parts of the world, the weather is becoming more extreme, bringing stronger storms, longer dry spells, and hotter days. These changes do not just affect the crops farmers grow or the water in rivers; they directly threaten the places where children learn. When a school floods, when the heat inside a classroom becomes unbearable, or when a drought makes the ground unstable, education stops. For millions of students, the safety of their learning environment is no longer guaranteed. Scientists have long known that climate change is a risk, but they have struggled to see exactly which specific buildings are in danger, especially in places where detailed maps and local records are hard to find. The challenge has been to move from broad generalizations about entire regions to a clear picture of individual schools, understanding that a school in a city faces different dangers than one in a remote village.

A new study has tackled this challenge by creating a detailed map of climate risk for nearly every school in Kenya. The researchers focused on 9,451 educational facilities, ranging from small primary schools to technical colleges, scattered across the country's diverse landscapes. To understand the danger each school faces, they looked at three things that must come together to create a crisis: the weather event itself, the presence of the school in that spot, and the ability of the community to cope. They combined data on past rainfall, temperature, and topography with future climate predictions to see where droughts, floods, and extreme heat are likely to hit hardest. By layering this information with data on how many people live nearby and how much electricity or infrastructure exists in an area, they could calculate a specific risk score for every single school. This approach allowed them to see the problem with a clarity that broad regional reports had missed, revealing that the danger is not spread evenly across the country but is concentrated in specific, vulnerable pockets.

The results of this assessment paint a stark picture of the current situation. Out of the nearly 9,500 schools analyzed, more than one-third are already facing high or very high levels of climate risk. This means that 3,589 facilities are in immediate danger of being damaged or rendered unusable by extreme weather. The study identified 1,405 schools that are classified as being in the "very high" risk category. These schools serve approximately 1.2 million learners and are located in areas where the threats are most severe. The researchers found that the risk is not uniform; instead, it clusters into three distinct types of trouble spots, each with its own unique combination of hazards.

The first type of hotspot is found in the Lake Victoria Basin. Here, the primary danger comes from a phenomenon the researchers call "Flood-Exposure Amplification." In this region, the risk is not driven solely by the intensity of the floodwaters, but by the sheer number of schools packed into flood-prone zones. Even though the flood hazard intensity is only moderate, the exceptionally high density of educational facilities means that a single storm can disrupt education for a vast number of children, creating a systemic risk. The second type of hotspot is found along the coast, where schools face a double threat: they are battered by seasonal floods and then subjected to intense, scorching heat. This combination of wet and hot conditions creates a difficult environment for both the buildings and the students inside.

The third and perhaps most severe hotspot is located in the northern and northeastern parts of the country, an area known as the arid and semi-arid lands. Here, the danger is driven by a relentless combination of drought and extreme heat. In these regions, schools often lack reliable water sources and cooling infrastructure. The heat is so intense that it can make learning nearly impossible, while the lack of rain leads to soil problems that can damage the structures themselves. The study found that in some of these counties, half of all the schools are in the highest risk category. For example, in Mandera County, 50 percent of schools are classified as very high risk, and in Wajir, the figure is 48 percent. These areas suffer from chronic water insecurity and high temperatures, creating a situation where the schools are constantly struggling against the environment.

The researchers also looked ahead to see how the situation might change in the coming decades. Using climate models that project conditions for the middle of the century, they estimated that the problem will likely get worse. Their simulations suggest that an additional 218 schools, which are currently in lower risk categories, will shift into the very high-risk group by the 2040s and 2050s. This indicates that the footprint of extreme risk is expanding, threatening to engulf more educational facilities as the climate continues to change. The study emphasizes that this is not just a matter of fixing broken roofs after a storm; it is about understanding where the next crisis will strike so that resources can be directed to the right places before disaster strikes.

One of the most important findings of the study is that the risk to a school is not determined solely by how bad the weather is, but by how the weather interacts with the school's location and the community's ability to handle it. A school in a remote area with no electricity and poor roads faces a much greater threat from a drought than a school in a city with strong infrastructure, even if the drought is equally severe in both places. The study used nighttime light data as a way to measure this ability to cope; areas that are dark at night, indicating a lack of electricity and development, were found to be far more vulnerable. This insight helps explain why some schools are in danger even when the weather hazard itself is moderate. The danger is a mix of the storm, the building, and the community's resources.

The study also highlights that the type of school matters. Schools for children with special needs were found to be the most vulnerable, with nearly half of them falling into the high or very high-risk categories. This is likely because these facilities often require more stable environments and specialized support that is harder to maintain when climate disruptions occur. Primary schools, which make up the vast majority of the educational system, also showed high levels of risk, with nearly 40 percent of them in the higher danger zones.

This work provides a crucial tool for decision-makers. Instead of guessing which schools need help or spreading funds evenly across a whole region, officials can now use this map to target the 1,405 most at-risk schools first. The study suggests a tiered approach: the most critical schools, those with the highest risk scores, should be retrofitted immediately to withstand floods, heat, or drought. Other schools can be monitored as "sentinels" to watch for changes in risk over time. By knowing exactly where the danger lies, governments and international organizations can invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, such as better drainage, cooling systems, or water harvesting, where it will save the most students from losing their education.

Ultimately, this research demonstrates that protecting education in a changing climate requires a shift from broad planning to precise action. It shows that while the weather is changing everywhere, the impact is felt most acutely in specific places where the hazards, the buildings, and the lack of resources collide. By mapping these collisions, the study offers a path forward to ensure that schools remain safe havens for learning, even as the world around them becomes more unpredictable. The findings serve as a clear call to action, proving that with the right data, it is possible to see the risks clearly and to build a more resilient future for millions of children.