The Teesta River Project and Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy on Transboundary River Water Management

Technical Summary: The Teesta River Project and Bangladesh's Foreign Policy on Transboundary River Water Management

Problem Statement
The paper addresses the unresolved water-sharing crisis over the transboundary Teesta River between Bangladesh and India. Despite decades of bilateral negotiations, a water-sharing treaty remains elusive due to India's upstream control, domestic political complexities within India's federal structure, and asymmetrical power relations. This impasse has led to severe dry-season water shortages in northern Bangladesh, negatively impacting agriculture and livelihoods.

In response to the stalled bilateral talks, the Bangladesh government initiated the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP), also known as the "Teesta River Project" or "Teesta Mega Project," in 2016. The project aims to manage downstream water flow by narrowing the river, constructing new channels, and storing monsoon overflow for dry-season use. While both China and India have signaled interest in financing and implementing the project, no Bangladeshi government has made a definitive decision to proceed. The core research problem is to explain why Bangladesh has been unable to leverage the TRCMRP to resolve the transboundary water crisis and to analyze the factors shaping the country's foreign policy behavior regarding this initiative.

Methodology
The study employs a qualitative research design using the Neoclassical Realism (NCR) theoretical framework. NCR is selected for its ability to analyze state behavior by integrating systemic pressures (international structure) with domestic variables (leadership perception, regime type).

• Data Collection: The research utilizes both primary and secondary data.
  • Secondary Data: Includes existing literature, government reports, and media sources from Bangladesh, India, and China.
  • Primary Data: Consists of 14 open-ended in-depth interviews (IDIs) conducted with former diplomats, foreign ministry officials, think tank researchers, Teesta river experts, and academic scholars in Bangladesh.
• Analysis: The study employs content analysis and data triangulation, comparing interview findings with media sources and literature to ensure trustworthiness and reduce subjectivity. The NCR framework is used to categorize factors into:
  • Systemic Factors: Bangladesh-India power asymmetry, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as an opportunity, and Sino-Indian geopolitical rivalry as a constraint.
  • Domestic Factors: Leadership perception and regime capacity across different administrations (Hasina, Interim/Yunus, and BNP).

Key Contributions
The paper contributes to the literature by shifting the focus from the traditional bilateral India-Bangladesh water dispute to the emerging geopolitical dimension involving the Teesta River Project.

1. Case Study Expansion: It fills a gap in existing literature by specifically analyzing the TRCMRP, a venture initiated by Bangladesh to manage water independently of a bilateral treaty.
2. Theoretical Application: It applies the Neoclassical Realist framework to a specific transboundary water issue, demonstrating how domestic political will interacts with systemic geopolitical constraints (specifically Sino-Indian rivalry) to shape foreign policy outcomes.
3. Policy Trajectory Analysis: The study provides a comparative analysis of how different Bangladeshi leaderships (Sheikh Hasina's government, the Interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, and the elected BNP government under Tarique Rahman) have approached the project, highlighting the variance in policy despite similar systemic pressures.

Results and Findings
The research identifies that Bangladesh's inability to finalize the Teesta River Project is not due to a lack of technical feasibility but is driven by a complex interplay of systemic constraints and domestic political will.

• Systemic Drivers:

  • Power Asymmetry: The long-standing failure to secure a water-sharing treaty with India, driven by India's upstream dominance, compelled Bangladesh to seek alternative solutions like the TRCMRP.
  • BRI Opportunity: China's involvement via the Belt and Road Initiative offered a systemic opportunity for Bangladesh to address the water crisis without relying solely on Indian cooperation.
  • Geopolitical Constraint: The Sino-Indian rivalry, particularly regarding the sensitive Siliguri Corridor (Chicken's Neck), acts as a systemic constraint. India perceives Chinese involvement in the Teesta project as a security threat, leading to counter-proposals and diplomatic pressure that complicates Bangladesh's decision-making.

• Domestic Variations:

  • Hasina Regime (2009–2024): Initially engaged China for the project but later expressed a preference for India to implement it, reflecting a diplomatic balancing act. However, the regime change in August 2024 halted these specific negotiations.
  • Interim Government (2024–2026): Adopted a balancing stance, engaging with both India and China. Due to its transitional nature and lack of democratic mandate, the government avoided definitive strategic decisions, resulting in no visible progress.
  • BNP Government (2026–Present): The newly elected government under PM Tarique Rahman has demonstrated a clear intention to implement the project with Chinese partnership, signaling a shift in domestic political will.

The study concludes that while the TRCMRP represents a potential alternative to the stalled bilateral treaty, the project's trajectory is ultimately determined by the domestic political will of the ruling leadership and their calculation of foreign policy risks within the Sino-Indian geopolitical context.

Significance and Claims
The paper modestly claims that the Teesta River Project serves as a critical case study for understanding how domestic political variables mediate systemic pressures in the foreign policy of a smaller state (Bangladesh) facing a powerful neighbor (India) and a rising global power (China).

The authors assert that the project's future is not solely a technical or bilateral issue but a complex geopolitical one. The significance lies in demonstrating that:

1. Bangladesh's foreign policy on water management is a function of leadership perception and regime capacity, not just international power dynamics.
2. The "Teesta River Project" has transformed a bilateral water dispute into a tripartite geopolitical issue involving India, China, and Bangladesh.
3. Future success depends on whether the leadership can navigate the "India-China binary" or pursue alternative pathways, such as engaging third-party technical partners (e.g., the Netherlands) or multilateral institutions, though the paper notes these are potential trajectories rather than confirmed outcomes.

The paper acknowledges limitations, including the inability to fully explore the diplomatic approach of the fallen Hasina regime due to the regime change and the scarcity of government information regarding the project. It concludes that the project remains a potential solution, but its realization is contingent upon the domestic political course chosen by Bangladesh's leadership.