Rumors Across Borders: How TransnationalTies and Social Media Shape Latino Belief inMisinformation and Support for Trump

Most people assume that the political news we consume stays within our own country's borders. We watch our local television stations, read our national newspapers, and scroll through feeds dominated by domestic stories. For many, the political world is a closed loop, contained entirely within the nation's boundaries. However, for a significant portion of the American population, specifically those with deep roots in Latin America, this loop is open. These individuals maintain active, daily connections with family and friends living in other countries. These cross-border relationships create a unique information environment where political stories, rumors, and news travel freely between the United States and the nations of origin. This flow of information is not just about family updates; it carries political weight, shaping how people view their own government, their neighbors, and the candidates running for office.

A puzzling trend has emerged in recent American elections that challenges traditional political theories. Despite a political candidate known for harsh rhetoric against immigrants and restrictive policies on migration, support for this candidate has grown significantly among Latino voters. This shift is surprising because many of these voters are immigrants or the children of immigrants, for whom immigration is a deeply personal and urgent issue. Standard explanations often point to personal characteristics like religious beliefs, economic worries, or cultural values to explain this change. Yet, these factors alone do not fully account for the rapid rise in support. A new study suggests that the answer may lie not in who these voters are, but in the specific information they encounter and how they process it.

The research, conducted by Francy Luna Diaz at the University of Michigan, investigates how these cross-border connections influence political beliefs. The study focuses on a specific mechanism: the journey of misinformation. Misinformation refers to false or misleading information that circulates without necessarily being intended to deceive. The researcher argues that people with strong ties to other countries are exposed to a wider range of political stories, including false ones, that originate outside the United States. These stories often touch on themes like socialism, crime, or election integrity, which are also common topics in American political debates. When a person hears a story from a trusted relative abroad about the collapse of services in their home country, that story carries a different kind of authority than a news report from a stranger. It feels real because it comes from someone with direct experience.

However, simply hearing a story does not mean a person will believe it. The study distinguishes between exposure, which is hearing a story, and belief, which is accepting it as true. The research finds that exposure alone is not enough to change political views. For a false story to become a belief, it needs a specific environment to take root. This is where social media plays a critical role. The study suggests that social media platforms act as a catalyst. When a person with cross-border ties uses social media frequently, the platforms repeatedly show them similar content, surround those stories with likes and shares from peers, and reinforce the message. This repetition and social validation make the false story feel more credible. Without heavy social media use, the same story from a relative might remain just a single, isolated conversation that is less likely to be accepted as fact.

To test this theory, the researcher conducted a large survey in September 2024, interviewing 1,500 people, including a specific group of 750 Latino adults. The survey asked participants about their connections to people living outside the United States, how often they used social media, and their beliefs regarding several specific political stories. Some of these stories were known to be false, such as claims that the US government was banning the Bible or that a foreign leader had won an election that had not yet happened. Others were true or fabricated for the study to serve as controls. The survey also asked about their opinions of Donald Trump and their voting intentions for the 2024 election.

The results confirmed the researcher's theory. First, Latino respondents were significantly more likely than non-Latino respondents to have friends or family living abroad and to communicate with them regularly. This confirmed that they are indeed embedded in these transnational information environments. Second, those with stronger cross-border ties were more likely to report having heard the false political stories circulating in their networks. The more connections they had, the more exposure they had to these narratives.

The most significant finding concerned the role of social media. The study found that having cross-border ties did not automatically lead to believing the false stories. Instead, the effect depended on how much the person used social media. For those who rarely used social media, having ties abroad made little difference in whether they believed the misinformation. But for those who used social media frequently, the combination of having cross-border ties and high social media use strongly predicted belief in the false stories. The digital environment amplified the messages from abroad, turning a single conversation into a repeated, validated narrative that was accepted as truth.

Finally, the study linked this belief in misinformation to political support. People who believed the false stories were much more likely to have a favorable view of Donald Trump, to report having voted for him in 2020, and to say they intended to vote for him in 2024. The connection was strong and consistent. The data suggests that when Latino voters accept these specific false narratives—often about socialism, crime, or election theft—they become more aligned with the political platform of the Republican candidate, despite his history of anti-immigrant rhetoric.

The research does not claim that this is the only reason for the shift in Latino voting patterns, nor does it suggest that all Latino voters are influenced in the same way. It explicitly notes that other factors like economic concerns, religion, and gender norms also play a role. However, the study highlights an overlooked source of political influence: the information that travels across borders. It demonstrates that political attitudes are not formed solely by domestic news or personal traits, but also by the stories that flow through international family networks and are amplified by digital platforms.

This finding offers a new way to understand the complexity of modern political behavior. It shows that the information environment is not uniform; it varies based on a person's social network. For communities with strong ties to other nations, the political landscape includes stories and perspectives that never make it to mainstream American news. When these stories are reinforced by social media, they can shape beliefs in powerful ways. The study concludes that to truly understand why people vote the way they do, we must look beyond the domestic sphere and consider how the global flow of information, both true and false, shapes the minds of voters at home.