The changing geography of birth registration in Nigeria: a decomposition analysis of the 2013, 2018, and 2024 Demographic and Health Surveys
This paper analyzes Nigeria's 2013–2024 birth registration trends, revealing that while certificate issuance improved, overall registration rates declined due to a demographic shift toward low-registration northern regions and widening socioeconomic inequalities, indicating that achieving universal registration now depends on accelerating progress in the North.
Original paper licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This is an AI-generated explanation of the paper below. It is not written or endorsed by the authors. For technical accuracy, refer to the original paper. Read full disclaimer
Every child needs a name, a place in the world, and a piece of paper that proves they exist. This simple fact is the foundation of a legal identity, a concept that sounds bureaucratic but is deeply human. Without an official birth record, a child cannot easily prove their age, enroll in school, access healthcare, or claim citizenship. In many parts of the world, governments are working to ensure every newborn gets this proof, a goal set by international leaders to be achieved by 2030. Yet, in Nigeria, the world's most populous African nation, the path to this universal identity has hit a strange and troubling bump. For years, the number of children with birth records was climbing, but recent data suggests that progress has not only stalled but may have reversed, leaving millions of children in a legal limbo.
A researcher at Nile University of Nigeria, Philip Osung, recently took a close look at this situation by examining three massive surveys conducted over a decade. These surveys, known as the Demographic and Health Surveys, asked thousands of families across the country about their children. Osung combined the data from 2013, 2018, and 2024 to create a continuous picture of what was happening to birth registration. He looked at nearly 87,000 children under the age of five to see not just how many were registered, but where they lived, who their parents were, and whether they held the actual certificate that proves their registration. The goal was to understand why the numbers changed and to find out if the country was truly moving forward or if the ground beneath the statistics was shifting.
The story the data tells is one of two different trends happening at the same time. In 2013, fewer than one in three children under five had their birth registered. By 2018, that number had jumped significantly to nearly 43 percent, a sign that the system was working. However, by 2024, the number had slipped back to just under 40 percent. This drop might seem small, but it marks a halt in progress after years of growth. When Osung looked deeper, he found a split in the types of records. The number of children holding an actual birth certificate rose steadily from 14.8 percent in 2013 to 27.5 percent in 2024. This means that for the children the system did reach, the paperwork was becoming more complete. The problem lay with the children who were registered but did not have a certificate. That group shrank dramatically, falling from over 20 percent in 2018 to just 12.2 percent in 2024. It appears the system is becoming better at issuing certificates to those it finds, but it is losing its ability to find and register the most vulnerable children in the first place.
The reason for the national decline is not that the system failed everywhere, but that the population itself moved. Nigeria is a vast country with deep differences between its north and south. The southern regions have long had much higher rates of birth registration, often exceeding 60 percent, while the northern regions struggle, with rates hovering around 30 percent or lower. Between 2018 and 2024, the number of young children living in the north grew, while the number of children in the south shrank relative to the total. Because the north has the lowest registration rates, this shift in where children are born pulled the national average down, even if the registration rates in specific states had stayed the same. In fact, the situation in the north was getting worse. In the northeast and northwest zones, registration rates actually fell. The northeast saw a sharp drop, falling from nearly 36 percent to 28 percent. This decline is likely linked to the long-running insecurity and conflict in those areas, which disrupts the local government offices and roads needed to register a birth.
The data also reveals that the gap between the rich and the poor is widening. Wealth and the education level of the child's parent are the strongest predictors of whether a birth is registered. In 2024, children from the wealthiest families were far more likely to be registered than those from the poorest. This gap grew steeper over time. While the richest children saw their registration rates climb, the poorest children saw theirs fall. This is particularly concerning because the children most likely to be missed are those who were previously registered without a certificate, a group that is heavily concentrated among the poorest families. The system seems to be formalizing, which is good for those who can access it, but it is leaving behind the informal, hard-to-reach families who need it most.
Geography plays a massive role in these outcomes, but it is not the whole story. When Osung compared the south and the north, he found a gap of nearly 30 percentage points. However, most of this difference could be explained by the fact that southern families tend to be wealthier and more educated. If you account for wealth and education, the gap shrinks significantly. This suggests that the divide is not just about where you live, but about the resources available to families in those places. Yet, even within the same regions, there were wild swings from state to state. Some states saw registration rates jump by nearly 30 points in just six years, while others saw them plummet by a similar amount. These rapid changes suggest that local administration and state-level policies matter more than broad national trends. A state government that prioritizes the issue can make huge gains quickly, while another can lose ground just as fast.
The findings point to a complex reality for Nigeria's future. The country is not failing to issue certificates; it is failing to reach the children who need them most. The national goal of registering every child by 2030 now faces a harder challenge than before. Because more children are being born in the regions with the weakest systems, the country needs to improve registration rates in the north much faster than before just to keep the national average steady. The progress seen in the past decade was partly due to the system reaching more people, but that momentum has stalled. The path forward requires fixing the administrative machinery in the conflict-affected north and finding new ways to reach the poorest families who are slipping through the cracks. The data shows that the system is capable of rapid improvement, as seen in the states that made huge gains, but it also shows that without targeted effort, the most vulnerable children will remain invisible to the state.
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