The most housing-insecure generation? Age, period, and cohort inequalities among renters in South Korea

In the modern world, housing is more than just a roof; it is a foundation for stability, health, and the ability to build a future. For decades, sociologists and economists have watched a troubling trend where young adults struggle to move from renting a room to owning a home. This phenomenon has earned the name "Generation Rent," suggesting that an entire era of young people is stuck in a temporary, precarious stage of life. However, a critical question has remained unanswered: is this struggle simply because they are young, or is it a deeper, lasting disadvantage tied to the specific time they were born? To understand this, researchers look at three distinct forces. First is age, which tracks the natural challenges of early adulthood, such as starting a career or forming a family. Second is the historical period, which captures events that affect everyone at the same time, like a recession or a sudden change in interest rates. Third is the birth cohort, which groups people by the year they were born and examines how the specific economic conditions they faced when they first entered the world shaped their entire lives. Distinguishing between these forces is vital because if the problem is just age, the situation will likely improve as people get older. If the problem is a specific birth cohort, however, the disadvantage may persist for decades, regardless of how much time passes.

A team of researchers from South Korea set out to untangle these forces within the country's rental market, a system known for its unique and often difficult conditions. They analyzed data from over 115,000 renter households collected between 2006 and 2020. The study focused on adults between the ages of 19 and 65 who were living independently, excluding those still living with their parents or those who had already bought homes. The researchers measured housing insecurity not just by how much rent people paid, but by a combination of hardships: living in spaces not meant for long-term habitation, being forced to move because a landlord kicked them out or rent became too high, living in overcrowded conditions, and feeling that housing costs are crushing their ability to buy food or other essentials. By using a statistical approach that separates the effects of age, the year of the survey, and the year of birth, the team could see which factor truly drove the insecurity.

The initial look at the data confirmed what many already suspected: young renters appeared to be far more insecure than older ones. In the early models, the risk of housing trouble followed a U-shaped curve, dropping to its lowest point around age 42 before rising again. However, when the researchers added details about the renters' lives—such as their education, whether they had a steady job, how much money they earned, and what kind of rental agreement they held—the picture changed dramatically. The apparent disadvantage of being young largely vanished. Once the researchers accounted for the fact that younger people often have lower incomes, less stable jobs, and different types of rental contracts, the age gap in housing insecurity disappeared. This suggests that the struggles of young renters are largely a result of where they stand in the economy at that moment, rather than a permanent trait of being young.

Yet, a different pattern emerged that did not fade away. When the researchers looked at the specific years people were born, they found that two recent groups of renters remained disproportionately insecure, even after all other factors were taken into account. These were people born between 1990 and 1994, and those born between 1995 and 1999. In the common language of generations used in South Korea, the first group falls into the late part of the "Millennial" generation, while the second group represents the early part of "Generation Z." The study found that the housing insecurity did not stop neatly at the boundary between these two named generations. Instead, the disadvantage spanned across both, affecting people born in the early 1990s and continuing through the late 1990s. This means that the most housing-insecure renters are not defined by a single generation label, but by a specific window of birth years that crossed the traditional generational divide.

This disadvantage was not felt equally across the country. The gap between these recent cohorts and earlier ones was much sharper in the capital region, which includes Seoul and its surrounding metropolitan areas. In this high-cost zone, where jobs and education opportunities are concentrated, the 1990–1994 and 1995–1999 groups faced significantly higher risks of overcrowding, unaffordable costs, and living in substandard housing. Outside the capital region, the pattern was weaker; the 1990–1994 group still faced some elevated risks, but the 1995–1999 group did not show the same level of disadvantage. This spatial difference highlights that the struggle is deeply tied to the specific economic pressures of the capital region, where the cost of living has risen faster than the resources available to these specific cohorts.

The researchers also examined the different types of housing trouble to see if the recent cohorts were suffering from one specific problem or a mix of them. They found that the 1990–1994 group was particularly likely to live in overcrowded spaces and report feeling that their rent was a heavy burden. The 1995–1999 group shared these issues but also faced a distinct spike in objective financial stress, where their rent took up a dangerously large portion of their income. Interestingly, the type of trouble varied slightly between the two groups, suggesting that while they share a common disadvantage, they face different trade-offs between space, cost, and stability. This complexity reinforces the idea that broad labels like "Generation Z" are too coarse to capture the reality of housing struggles, which can shift even between adjacent five-year groups.

One of the most significant findings was that this disadvantage persisted even during years when the overall rental market seemed to be improving. The data showed that in the later years of the study, specifically from 2017 to 2020, the general conditions for renters became more favorable, with lower insecurity rates across the board. Yet, the two recent birth cohorts remained more insecure than their predecessors, even in these better times. This suggests that the problems these groups face are not just a reaction to a bad economy at a specific moment, but are rooted in the structural conditions they encountered when they first entered the housing and job markets. They entered a system where access to housing increasingly depended on high deposits and credit, while their own accumulated wealth and family resources were often insufficient to compete.

The study concludes that the housing insecurity of young renters in South Korea cannot be dismissed as a temporary phase of youth that will naturally resolve as people age. While the immediate struggles of being young are real, they are largely explained by economic factors like income and employment. The deeper, more persistent issue is a cohort-specific disadvantage that affects those born in the 1990s, regardless of whether they are labeled Millennials or Generation Z. This disadvantage is concentrated in the capital region and manifests in multiple forms of hardship, from overcrowding to financial strain. The findings suggest that policies aimed at helping young people need to look beyond simple age limits. Instead, they must address the specific historical and economic circumstances that have made it harder for these particular groups to secure stable housing, recognizing that the challenges they face may not simply disappear as they grow older.