The Burden of Bladder Cancer in Africa: a 2024 GLOBOCAN-based Study with a Projection to 2050

Bladder cancer is a disease where abnormal cells grow in the organ that stores urine. While it occurs worldwide, the reasons people get it and the number of cases vary greatly from one place to another. In some parts of the world, the main cause is smoking or exposure to certain chemicals at work. In other regions, a specific parasite infection that lives in fresh water is a major driver. This infection, known as schistosomiasis, causes long-term irritation in the bladder, which can eventually lead to cancer. Understanding where this disease is most common and how it might change in the future is vital for governments and health organizations. They need to know where to send doctors, where to build hospitals, and how to prevent the disease before it starts. Without this knowledge, resources might be wasted in places that do not need them, while areas with growing needs are left without care.

A team of researchers from the University of Nairobi recently looked at the current state of bladder cancer across the entire African continent and made a prediction for the future. They used a global database that compiles cancer statistics from every country to create a detailed picture of the disease in Africa. Their work focused on two main questions: how many people are getting sick and dying from bladder cancer right now, and how those numbers might change by the year 2050. The researchers did not collect new data from patients themselves. Instead, they carefully gathered existing estimates for all 54 countries in Africa, grouping them into five geographic regions to see patterns that might be hidden if looking at the continent as a single whole.

The study found that in 2024, there were approximately 33,477 new cases of bladder cancer and 18,626 deaths related to the disease across Africa. The burden is not shared equally. The northern part of the continent carries the heaviest load, accounting for more than half of all cases and deaths. Egypt, in particular, has the highest rates in the entire region, with 10,579 new cases and 5,866 deaths recorded in 2024. This high number is largely linked to the history of schistosomiasis in the Nile Valley, where the parasite is common. The data also shows a clear difference between men and women. In every region studied, men are much more likely to develop the disease than women. In Northern Africa, the number of male cases is more than four times higher than the number of female cases. This gap is likely because men in these areas are more often exposed to the parasite through agricultural work in infested water.

While the north currently has the most cases, the future looks different. The researchers projected that by 2050, the total number of new cases in Africa will more than double, rising to nearly 78,000. The number of deaths is expected to increase even faster, reaching 44,335. This surge is not because the risk of getting the disease is changing for individuals, but because the population of Africa is growing and getting older. Older people are more likely to develop cancer, and a larger population means more people overall. The regions expected to see the biggest relative increase are in the east and middle of the continent. Countries like Zambia, Uganda, and Burundi are predicted to see their case numbers more than double. These areas currently have very few hospitals and specialists trained to treat bladder cancer, which raises concerns about whether they will be able to handle the coming wave of patients.

The study highlights a critical challenge for the continent. While Northern Africa will continue to have the highest total number of patients, the fastest growth is happening in regions that are least prepared to treat them. The researchers suggest that to manage this future burden, countries need to invest now in better cancer registries to track the disease accurately, expand programs to control the water-borne parasite, and strengthen tobacco control efforts. They also emphasize the need to train more urologists and pathologists, especially in the rapidly growing nations of Eastern and Middle Africa. Without these steps, the gap between the number of people who need care and the care available could widen significantly, leading to more preventable deaths in the decades to come.